Derek Bunn

Professor of Decision Sciences, Management Science and Operations; Chief Examiner

MA (Cambridge) MSc PhD (London)

Professor Derek W Bunn is the author of over 200 research papers and 10 books in the areas of forecasting, decision analysis and energy economics. As Professor of Decision Sciences at London Business School, he has been the recipient of several professional and industry awards, including the Goodeve Medal, from the UK Operational Research Society. His work has been extensively cited, and translated into more than six languages.

Professor Bunn read Natural Sciences at Trinity College, Cambridge University; received a PhD from London Business School; and was subsequently elected CEGB Fellow in Engineering at Oxford University. He has also been a visiting professor at Stanford University in California.

He was an elected council member of The Institute of Management Sciences (1992-1994), representing international interests in the merger executive with ORSA to create INFORMS.

More recently he has served as council member of the British Institute of Energy Economists. He has been chief editor of the Journal of Forecasting since 1984, and was formerly chief editor of Energy Economics. He is also the founding editor of the Journal of Energy Markets and has served on the editorial boards of 11 other journals, including Management Science.

He is currently chairman of the UK Government Panel of Technical Experts for the Electricity Market and he also serves as an independent member of the industry panel that oversees the wholesale electricity trading. He has acted as a special advisor to the House of Commons Select Committee on Energy and Climate Change, consultant to the UK Competition Commission on Electricity Market Abuse, Expert Advisor to the National Audit Office (in their review of the electricity industry reforms), peer reviewer on modelling work for DECC and Ofgem, and Expert Witness in several litigation cases before the High Court and at international Tribunals. He has been a regular keynote speaker and chair at many international research and practitioner conferences.

Recent Awards from Research Funding Bodies

2019: Digital Aggregators in Electricity Markets EPSRC
2018: Digital Energy Communities InnovateUK
2017: System Transition to Digital Energy UK EPSRC
2015: Energy Efficient and Smart Communities EU2020
2013: Sustainable District Retrofitting EU FP7
2012: Electricity Auctions and Market Spikes EU Marie Curie Actions
2011: Optionality in UK Energy Policy UK Energy Research Council
2010: Modelling Electricity Market Decarbonisation Electric Power Research Institute (California)
2009: Electricity and Carbon Market Risk Norwegian Research Council
2008: Incentives, Risk and Climate Change Policy UK Economic and Social Research Council

Business forecasting
Decision technology
Electricity and energy economics

2022

An optimal real-time pricing strategy for aggregating distributed generation and battery storage systems in energy communities: A stochastic bilevel optimization approach

Sarfarazi S; Mohammadi S; Khastieva D; Hesamzadeh R M; Bertsch V; Bunn D

International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems 2022

Bayesian Predictive Distributions for Imbalance Prices with Time-varying Factor Impacts

Bunn Derek W; Damien Paul; Lima Luana Marangon

IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 2022 Vol 38:1 p 349-357

Distribution Locational Marginal Pricing (DLMP) for Unbalanced Three-Phase Networks

Mohammadi S; Hesamzadeh M R; Bunn D W

IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 2022 Vol 37:5 p 3443-3457

Integration of hydrogen and synthetic natural gas within legacy power generation facilities

Dominguez-Gonzalez G; Muñoz-Hernandez J; Bunn D; Garcia-Checa C

Energies 2022 Vol 15:12

Mitigation of the Inefficiency in Imbalance Settlement Designs using Day-Ahead Prices

Matsumoto T; Bunn DW; Yamada Y

IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 2022 Vol 37:5 p 3333-3345

Optimal analysis for facility configuration and energy management on electric light commercial vehicle charging

Tang Y; Zhang Q; Wen Z; Bunn D; Nieto Martin J

Energy 2022 In Press

Pricing Electricity Day-ahead Cap Futures with Multifactor Skew-t Densities

Matsumoto T; Bunn D W; Yamada Y

Quantitative Finance 2022 Vol 22:5 p 835-860

Using Cross-Impact Analysis for Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Salo A; Tosoni E; Roponen; Bunn D W

Futures and Foresight Science 2022 Vol 4:2

2021

Analysis of the fundamental predictability of prices in the British balancing market

Bunn D W; Inekwe J N; MacGeehan D

IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 2021 March Vol 36:2 p 1309-1316

Comparative evaluation and policy analysis for recycling retired EV batteries with different collection modes

Zhang Q; Tang Y; Bunn D; Li H; Li Y

Applied Energy 2021 Vol 303:1

Observations on "Risk Transmission Across Supply Chains"

Bunn D W

Production and Operations Management 2021 Vol 30:12 p 4588-4589

Optimal Daily Trading of Battery Operations using Arbitrage Spreads

Abramova E; Bunn D W

Energies 2021 Vol 14:16 p e4931

Optimal dispatch in a balancing market with intermittent renewable generation

Shinde P; Hesamzadeh M R; Date P; Bunn D W

IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 2021 March Vol 36:2 p 865-878

Optimal transmission investment with regulated incentives based upon forward considerations of firm and intermittent resources with batteries

Khastieva D; Mohammadi S; Hesamzadeh M R; Bunn D

IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 2021 Vol 36:5 p 4420-4434

Renewable power and electricity prices: the impact of forward markets

Peura H; Bunn D W

Management Science 2021 Vol 67:8 p 4772-4788

The variation in capacity remuneration required in different European electricity markets

Hickey C; Bunn D; Deane P; McInerney C; O Gallachoir B

Energy Journal 2021 Vol 42:2 p 135-164

2020

Forecasting the intra-day spread densities of electricity prices

Abramova E; Bunn D

Energies 2020 Vol 13:3 p 687

Optimal procurement of flexibility services within electricity distribution networks

Laur A; Nieto-Martin J; Bunn D W; Vincente-Pastor A

European Journal of Operational Research 2020 Vol 285:1 p 34-47

Short-term electricity price forecasting with recurrent regimes and structural breaks

de Marcos R A; Bunn D W; Bello A; Reneses J

Energies 2020 Vol 13:20 p 5452

The emergence of smart and flexible distribution systems

Bunn D W; Nieto Martin J

in Hesamzadeh, M, et al, Transmission Network Investment in Liberalized Power Markets, Springer Berlin

The impact of generator market power on the electricity hedge market

Hesamzadeh M R; Biggar D R; Bunn D W; Moiseeva E

Energy Economics 2020 Vol 86 104649

2019

Agent-level determinants of price expectation formation in online double-sided auctions

Avci E; Bunn D; Ketter W; van Heck E

Decision Support Systems 2019 September Vol 124 113068

Evaluation of flexibility markets for retailer-DSO-TSO coordination

Vicente-Pastor A; Nieto-Martin J; Bunn D W; Laur A

IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 2019 Vol 34:3 p 2003-2012

Expansion of the investor base for the energy transition energy policy

McInerney C; Bunn D W

Energy Policy 2019 June Vol 129 p 1240-1244

2018

A trading-based evaluation of density forecasts in a real-time electricity market

Bunn D W; Gianfreda A; Kermer S

Energies 2018 Vol 11:10 p 2658

Analysis of coal conversion to biomass as a transitional technology

Bunn D W; Redondo-Martin J; Munoz-Hernandez J I; Diaz-Cachinero P

Renewable Energy 2018 Vol 132 p 752-760

Design of local services markets for pricing DSO-TSO procurement coordination

Vicente-Pastor A; Nieto-Martin J; Bunn D W; Varga L

IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting 2018

Enabling automated transparency for the market participation of ESCOs with Blockchain

Nieto-Martin J; Bunn D W

IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting 2018

Stochastic latent moment model for electricity price formation

Bunn D W; Gianfreda A

Operations Research 2018 Vol 66:5 p 1189-1203

2017

Dynamic investments in flexibility services for electricity distribution with multi-utility synergies

Nieto-Martin J; Bunn D W; Savill M

in 40th IAEE International Conference, 18-21 June 2017, Singapore

Fundamental and financial influences on the co-movement of oil and gas prices

Bunn D W; Chevallier J; LePen Y; Sevi B

Energy Journal 2017 Vol 38:2

Medium-term probabilistic forecasting of electricity prices: a hybrid approach

Bunn D W; Bello A; Reneses J; Munoz A

IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 2017 Vol 32:1 p 334-343

2016

Analysis and forecasting of electricity price risks with quantile factor models

Bunn D W; Chen D; Westgaard S

The Energy Journal 2016 Vol 37:1 p 101-122

Dynamic capacity planning using strategic slack valuation

Bunn D W; Oliveria F S

European Journal of Operational Research 2016 Vol 253:1 p 40-50

Modeling the UK electricity price distributions using quantile regression

Bunn D W; Hagfors L W; Westgaard S; Staver T T; Kristoffersen E

Energy 2016 Vol 102 p 231-243

Optimal over installation of wind generation facilities

McInerney C; Bunn D W

Energy Economics 2016 Vol 61 p 87-96

Parametric density recalibration of a fundamental market model to forecast electricity prices

Bello A; Bunn D; Reneses J; Munoz A

Energies 2016 Vol 9:11

Real options valuation applied to dynamic transmission expansion planning

Bunn D W; Lumbreras S; Ramos A; Chronopoulos M

Quantitative Finance 2016 Vol 16:2 p 231-246

Risk-induced resource dependency in capacity investments

Bunn D W; Kettunen J

European Journal of Operational Research 2016 Vol 250:3 p 914-924

Systematic analysis of the evolution of electricity and carbon markets under deep decarbonisation

Bunn D W; Blyth W; Chronopoulos M; Munoz J

Journal of Energy Markets 2016 September Vol 9:3 p 59-94

Weather and market specificities in the regional transmission of renewable energy price effects

Carvalho Figueiredo N; Pereira da Silva P; Bunn D

Energy 2016 Vol 114:1 p 188-200

2015

A stakeholder analysis of divergent supply-chain trends for the European onshore and offshore wind installations

Bunn D W; Madlener R; Wuerstmeyer C

Energy Policy 2015 Vol 80 p 36-44

Dynamic pricing of peak production

Peura H; Bunn D W

Operations Research 2015 Vol 63:6 p 1262-1279

Measuring the carbon delta in financial performance

Bunn D W; McInerny C

in Donovan, C. (ed) Renewable energy finance: powering the future; London, Imperial College Press, 2015

Resource externalities and the persistence of heterogeneous pricing behaviour in an energy commodity market

Bunn D W; Koc V; Sapio S

Energy Economics 2015 Vol 48 p 265-275

Supporting the externality of intermittency in policies for renewable energy

Bunn D W; Munoz J

Energy Policy 2015 Vol 88 p 594-602

The progressive inefficiency of replacing renewable obligation certificates with contracts-for-differences in the UK electricity market

Bunn D W; Yusupov T

Energy Policy 2015 Vol 82 p 298-309

2014

Optionality and policymaking in re-transforming the British power market

Chronopoulos M; Siddiqui A; Bunn D W

Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy 2014 Vol 3:2 p 79-100

The forecasting accuracy of electricity price formation models

Nan F; Bordignon S; Bunn D W; Lisi F

International Journal of Energy and Statistics 2014 Vol 2:1 p 46023

The forecasting performance of a finite mixture regime-switching model for daily electricity prices

Bunn D W; Chen D

Journal of Forecasting 2014 Vol 33:5 p 364-375

2013

Combining day-ahead forecasts for British electricity prices

Bordignon S; Bunn D W; Lisi F; Nan F

Energy Economics 2013 Vol 35 p 88-103

Determinants of the premium in forward contracts

Redl C; Bunn D W

Journal of Regulatory Economics 2013 Vol 43:1 p 90-111

Investment risk and return under renewable decarbonisation of a power market

Munoz J; Bunn D W

Climate Policy 2013 Vol 13:1 p 87-105

The forward premium in electricity futures

Bunn D W; Chen D

Journal of Empirical Finance 2013 Vol 23 p 173-186

Valuation anomalies for interconnector transmission rights

McInerney C; Bunn D W

Energy Policy 2013 Vol 55 p 565-578

2012

Forecasting power prices using a hybrid fundamental-econometric model

Gonzalez V; Contreras J; Bunn D W

IEE Transactions on Power Systems 2012 Vol 27:1 p 363-372

2011

Co-evolution of policy, market and technical price risks in the EU ETS

Bunn D W; Blyth W

Energy Policy 2011 Vol 39:8 p 4578-4593

Energy markets

Bunn D W; Clements M; Hendry D

Book Chapter: In M Clements, D Hendry, Oxford Forecasting Handbook, OUP, 2011

Interaction of judgmental and statistical forecasting methods - issues and analysis

Bunn D W; Wright G

Forecasting 2011 p 501-518

Investment propensities under carbon policy uncertainty

Bunn D W; Kettunen J; Blyth W

Energy Journal 2011 Vol 32:1 p 77-118

Price formation and market power in a low carbon electrcity system

Morrow I; Bunn D W

International Conference on the European Energy Market 2011 p 839-843

2010

Analysis of the nonlinear response of electricity prices to fundamental and strategic factors

Bunn D W; Chen D

IEE Transactions on Power Systems 2010 May Vol 25:2 p 595-606

Forecasting prices and volatilities using a hybrid fundamental econometric model

Bunn D W; Gonzalez V; Contreras J

Proceedings of the IEEE 2010 25-29 July p 1-7

Fundamental and behavioural drivers of electricity price volatility

Bunn D W; Karakatsani N

Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics 2010 September Vol 14:4 p 1-42

Integration and shock transmissions across European electricity forward markets

Bunn D W; Gianfreda A

Energy Economics 2010 Vol 32:2 p 278-291

Optimization of electricity retailer's contract fortfolio subject to risk preferences

Kettunen J; Salo A; Bunn D W

IEE Transactions on Power Systems 2010 Vol 25:1 p 117-128

Structural analysis of electricity demand and supply interactions

Bunn D W; Fezzi C

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 2010 Vol 72:6 p 827-856

Structural interactions of European carbon prices

Bunn D W; Fezzi C

Journal of Energy Markets 2010 Vol 2:4 p 53-69

The efficiency of network transmission rights as derivatives on energy supply chains

Bunn D W; Martoccia M

Journal of Derivatives 2010 Winter Vol 18:2 p 46-57

Vertical integration and market power: A model based analysis of restructuring in the Korean electricity market

Bunn D W; Ochoa P; Martoccia M; Kim H; Sahn N

Energy Policy 2010 July Vol 38:7 p 3710-3716

2009

Analyzing the temporal effects of ex ante mechanism designs in power markets

Bunn D; Mortoccia M

Proceedings of the IEEE 2009 26-30 July p 1-4

Computational modelling of price formation in the electricity pool of England and Wales

Bunn D; Day C J

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 2009 February Vol 33:2 p 363-376

Dynamics in forward and spot electricity markets

Sanchez J J; Bunn D W; Centeno E; Barquin J

IEE Transactions on Power Systems 2009 Vol 24:2 p 582-591

Market power in transmission auctions

Bunn D; Zachmann G

Journal of Regulatory Economics 2009

Policy interactions, risk and price formation in carbon markets

Bunn D; Blyth W; Kettunen J; Wilson T

Energy Policy 2009 Vol 37:12 p 5192-5207

2008

A vector error correction model of the interactions among gas, electricity and carbon prices

Bunn D W; Fezzi C

Book Chapter: In F. Gulli (ed) Markets for carbon and power pricing in Europe, Edward Elgar, 2008

Analysing the price-effects of vertical and horizontal market power with agent based simulation

Bunn D W; Martoccia M

Proceedings of the IEEE 2008 20-24 July p 1-6

Cross-holdings, concentration and information in capacity-constrained sealed bid-offer auctions

Ruperez Micola A; Bunn D W

Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 2008 Vol 66:3-4 p 748-766

Evaluating the power investment options with uncertainty in climate policy

Yang M; Blyth W; Bradley R; Bunn D W; Clarke C; Wilson T

Energy Economics 2008 Vol 30:4 p 1933-1950

Forecasting electricity prices: The impact of fundamentals and time-varying coefficients

Bunn D W; Karakatsani N K

International Journal of Forecasting 2008 Oct-Dec Vol 24:4 p 764-785

Incentives and co-ordination in vertically related energy markets

Bunn D W; Micola R

Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 2008 Vol 67:2 p 381-393

Intra-day and regime-switching dynmaics in electricity price formation

Bunn D W; Nektaria V; Karakatsani V

Energy Economics 2008 Vol 30:4 p 1776-1797

Modelling the impact of market interventions on the strategic evolution of electricity markets

Bunn D W; Oliveira F

Operations Research 2008 Vol 56:5 p 1116-1130

2007

Investment incentives in the Korean electricity market

Bunn D W; et al.

Energy Policy 2007 Vol 35:11 p 5819-5828

Investment risks under uncertain climate change policy

Blyth W; Bradley R; Bunn D W; Clarke C; Wilson T; Yang M

Energy Policy 2007 Vol 35:11 p 5766-5773

Two markets and weak link

Bunn D W; Ruperez Micola A

Energy Economics 2007 Vol 29:1 p 79-93

2006

Agent-based analysis of technological diversification and specialisation in electricity markets

Bunn D W; Oliveira F

European Journal of Operational Research 2006 Vol 181:3 p 1265-1278

Institutional intent and strategic evolution in electricity markets

Bunn D W

In Miecelski M ed., Complex electricity markets, Polish institute of electricity, Lodz, 2006

2005

Development of a multifunctional sales response model with the diagnostic aid of artificial neural networks

Bunn D W; Pantelidaki S

Journal of Forecasting 2005 Vol 24:7 p 502-521

Electricity markets

Bunn D W

Energy Economics 2005 Special Issue

Large neural networks for electricity load forecasting: are they overfitted?

Bunn D W; Hippert H; Souza R

International Journal of Forecasting 2005 July-Sep Vol 21:3 p 425-434

Unilateral and collusive market power in the electricity pool of England and Wales

Bunn D W; Martoccia M

Energy Economics 2005 Vol 27:2 p 305-315

2004

Analysing the impact of electricity asset trading on the evolution of market structure

Bunn D W; Oliveira F

Proceedings of 3rd European Congress on Economics and Management of Energy in Industry, Estoril, 2004

2003

Evaluating individual market power in electricity markets via agent-based simulation

Bunn D W; Oliveira F

Annals of Operations Research 2003 Vol 121 p 57-78

Valuation of electricity companies in evolutionary oligopolistic markets

Bunn D W

Proc agent 2002 conference on social agents: ecology, exchange and evolution, Argonne National Laboratory, University of Chicago, 2003

2001

Agent-based simulation: an application to the new electricity trading arrangements of England and Wales

Bunn D W; Oliveira F

IEEE Transactions on Evolutionary Computation 2001 Vol 5:5 p 493-503

Divestiture of generation assets in the England and Wales electricity market: a computational approach to modelling market power

Bunn D W; Day C

Journal of Regulatory Economics 2001

Experimental analysis of the efficiency of uniform-price versus discriminatory auctions in the England and Wales electricity market

Bunn D W; Bower J

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 2001 Vol 25:3-4 p 561-592

Load forecasting via neural networks: an investigation on the overfitting problem

Bunn D W

Annals of the V CBRN (5th Brazilian Neural Network Conference) Rio de Janeiro, RJ p 445-449

Model based comparison of strategic consolidation in the German electricity industry

Bunn D W; Bower J; Wattendrup C

Energy Policy 2001 Vol 29:12 p 987-1005

Setting accuracy targets for short-term judgemental sales forecasting

Bunn D W; Taylor J W

International Journal of Forecasting 2001 Vol 17:2 p 159-169

2000

Editorial to the 21st anniversary issue

Bunn D W

Energy Economics 2000 Vol 22:1

Forecasting loads and prices in competitive power markets

Bunn D W

Proceedings of the IEEE 2000 Vol 88:2 p 163-169

Model-based comparisons of pool and bilateral markets for electricity trading

Bunn D W; Bower J

Energy Journal 2000 Vol 21:3 p 1-29

Review of practical guidelines for combining forecasts

de Menezes L M; Bunn D W; Taylor J W

European Journal of Operational Research 2000 Vol 120:1 p 190-204

Understanding latent market power in the electricity pool of England and Wales

Bunn D W

In Eakin and Faruqui eds., Pricing energy for a competitive market, Kluwer, 2000

1999

Comparison of seasonal estimation methods in multi-item, short-term forecasting

Bunn D W; Vassilopoulos A

International Journal of Forecasting 1999 Vol 15:4 p 431-444

Deregulation in electricity: understanding strategic and regulatory risk

Bunn D W; Larsen E R

Journal of the Operational Research Society 1999 Vol 50:4

Improving the accuracy of prediction intervals for combinations of forecasts: a simulation study

Bunn D W; Taylor J

International Journal of Forecasting 1999 Vol 15:3

Investigating improvements in the accuracy of prediction intervals for combinations of forecasts: a simulation study

Taylor J W; Bunn D W

International Journal of Forecasting 1999 Vol 15 p 325-339

Modelling prices in the electricity pool of England and Wales

Bunn D W

In Proceedings of the 12th Forecasting Symposium, Palo Alto, California 1999

Persistence of market power

Bunn D W; Day C J; Vlahos K

In Bunn D W ed., Strategic price risk in wholesale power markets, RISK, 1999

Quantile regression approach to generating prediction intervals

Bunn D W; Taylor J W

Management Science 1999 Vol 45:2 p 225-237

Reflections on the progress of electricity restructuring, privatisation and regulation in the UK during 1988-1998

Bunn D W

In Pfaffenberg W, Lychagin M and Melamid L eds., Electricity markets: problems of development, Russian Academy of Sciences, 1999

1998

Agent-based simulation of electric power pools

Bunn D W; Day C J

In Proceedings of the 19th IAEE North American Conference, 1998

Combining forecast quantiles using quantile regression: investigating the derived weights, estimator bias and imposing of constraints

Bunn D W; Taylor J W

Journal of Applied Statistics 1998 Vol 25:2 p 193-206

Integrated modelling approach for understanding competitive electricity markets

Vlahos K; Ninios P; Bunn D W

Journal of the Operational Research Society 1998 Vol 49:3 p 187-199

Persistence of specification problems in the distribution of combined forecast errors

Bunn D W; Menezes L

International Journal of Forecasting 1998 Vol 14:3 p 415-426

Reflections on the progress of electricity restructuring, privatisation and regulation in the UK during 1988-1998

Bunn D W

In Proceedings of CIER XXXIII Top Executives Meeting: Trends in the Electricity Industry, Cartagena, 1998

Understanding strategic bidding behaviour in the electricity pool of England and Wales

Bunn D W

In Proceedings of the Fourth IAEE European Conference: Energy Markets: What's new?, 1998, p 391-396

1997

Backpropagation with discounted least squares and its application to financial time series modelling

Refenes A N; Bunn D W; et al

Neurocomputing 1997 Vol 14:2 p 123-138

Complementary modelling approaches for analysing several effects of privatisation on electricity investment

Vlahos K; Bunn D W

In Bunn D W and Larsen E eds., Systems modelling for energy policy, Wiley, 1997

Modelling latent market power across gas and electricity markets

Bunn D W; Larsen E R; Dyner I

System Dynamics Review 1997 Vol 13:4

Progress of the UK electricity re-structuring and privatisation process during 1989-1996

Bunn D W

Letras Juridicas 1997 Vol 2:1 p 33-46

Rischi strategici e di regolamentazione

Bunn D W; Larsen E R

Energia 1997 Vol 18:2 p 42-51

Systems simulation platform to support energy policy in Colombia

Bunn D W; Dyner I

In Bunn D W and Larsen E eds., Systems modelling for energy policy, Wiley, 1997

Use of error feedback terms in neural network modelling of financial time series modelling

Burgess A N; Refenes A N

in: Danis C (ed) Forecasting Financial Markets, Chichester: John Wiley 1996

1996

Adjustment of forecasts with model consistent expectations

Bunn D W; Salo A

International Journal of Forecasting 1996 Vol 12:1 p 163-170

Analysis of market restructuring and rational energy use in Colombia using a systems simulation platform

Bunn D W; Dyner I

In Proceedings of the IAEE 19th International Energy Conference, Budapest, 1996

Development of a systems simulation platform to analyse market liberalisation and integrated energy conservation policies in Colombia

Bunn D W; Dyner I

In Proceedings of the 1996 System Dynamics Conference, Boston, 1996

Electricity restructuring and market-based pricing in the UK electricity industry during 1990-1995

Bunn D W

In The British privatization experiment, 5 years later: the winners and losers, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California, 1996

Integrative modelling approach for understanding competitive electricity markets

Bunn D W; Ninios P; Vlahos K

In Proceedings of the EULAFER Conference, Rio de Janeiro, 1996

Market-based pricing and demand-side participation in the electricity pool of England and Wales

Bunn D W

In Proceedings of the EPRI Conference on Innovative Approaches to Electricity Pricing, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California, 1996

Modelling strategic and regulatory risk (in Italian)

Bunn D W; Larsen E R

Rivista Energia 1996

Non-traditional methods of forecasting

Bunn D W

European Journal of Operational Research 1996 Vol 92:3 p 528-536

Plataforma de dinamica de sistemas para el apoyo al analisis de politicas en materia de uso racional de energia

Bunn D W; et al.

In Proceedings of the EULAFER Conference, Rio de Janeiro, 1996

Re-evaluation of the UK electricity re-structuring and privatisation process during 1989-1996

Bunn D W

In Proceedings of the EULAFER Conference, Rio de Janeiro, 1996

Review of the electricity pool of England and Wales from a demand-side perspective

Bunn D W

In MacKerron G and Pearson P eds., The UK energy experience: a model or warning, World Scientific Publishing, 1996

Systems simulation to assess DSM policies for energy sustainability

Bunn D W; Dyner I

International Journal of Global Energy Issues 1996 Vol 9:3/4

Systems simulation to support integrated energy analysis and liberalised planning

Bunn D W; Dyner I

International Transactions in Operational Research 1996 Vol 3:2 p 105-116

1995

Decision technology and intelligent decision support (editorial)

Bunn D W; Silverman B G

European Journal of Operational Research 1995 Vol 84:1 p 1-4

Decomposition in the assessment of judgemental probability forecasts

Bunn D W; Salo A

Technological Forecasting and Social Change 1995 Vol 49 p 13-25

Electricity restructuring and market-based pricing in the UK electricity industry during 1990-1995

Bunn D W

In Proceedings of the 11th International Seminar on Energy Planning, ACIEM, Bogota, 1995

Finance and investment technology

Bunn D W; Refenes A N

Global Investment Management 1995 Vol 4:2 p 20-31

Industry simulation: system modelling with an object oriented/DEVS technology

Ninios P; Vlahos K; Bunn D W

European Journal of Operational Research 1995 Vol 81:3 p 521-534

Neural networks and investment management

Bunn D W; Refenes A N

In Treleaven P and Goonatilake S eds., Intelligent systems for finance and business, Wiley, 1995

Neural networks and quantitative finance

Refenes A N; Bunn D W

In Skeete H ed., Handbook of world stock and commodity exchanges, IFR Publishing, 1995

OO/DEVS: a platform for industry simulation and strategic modelling

Ninios P; Vlahos K; Bunn D W

Decision Support Systems 1995 Vol 15 p 229-245

Progress in re-structuring, privatising and regulating the UK electricity industry during 1990-1995

Bunn D W

Pacific and Asian Journal of Energy 1995 Vol 5:2 p 223-234

Strategic opportunities across the new UK electricity and gas markets

Bunn D W; Dyner I; Larsen E R

In Proceedings of the 18th International Association for Energy Economists Conference, Washington DC, 1995

1994

Assessment of uncertainty and regulation of electricity investment using an industry simulation model

Bunn D W; Larsen E R

Utilities Policy 1994 Vol 4:3 p 229-236

Balancing data and judgement in systems planning

Bunn D W

In Proceedings of the First Colombian Conference on Systems Modelling, Bucaramanga, 1994

Evaluating the effects of privatising electricity

Bunn D W

Journal of the Operational Research Society 1994 Vol 45:4 p 367-375

Modelling electricity privatization in the UK

Bunn D W; Larsen E R

In Proceedings of the 1994 System Dynamics Conference, Stirling, July 1994

Modelling the effects of privatization on capacity investment in the UK electricity industry

Bunn D W; Larsen E R; Vlahos K

Energetica 1994 Vol 10 p 41-68

1993

Complementary modelling approaches for analyzing several effects of privatisation on electricity investment

Bunn D W; Larsen E; Vlahos K

Journal of the Operational Research Society 1993 Vol 44:10 p 957-971

Diagnostic tracking and model specification in combined forecasts of UK inflation

Bunn D W; Menezes L

Journal of Forecasting 1993 Vol 12:7 p 559-572

Forecasting with scenarios

Bunn D W; Salo A

European Journal of Operational Research 1993 Vol 68:13 p 291-303

Graphical model specification within the OO/DEVS framework

Ninios P; Bunn D W; et al

In Proceedings of the 1993 European Simulation Symposium, Delft, 1993

Modelling the effects of privatization on capacity investment in the UK electricity industry

Bunn D W; Larsen E R; Vlahos K

Journal of the Operational Research Society 1993 October Vol 44:10 p 957-971

Modelling the UK electricity contract market under the object orientated/DEVS framework

Vlahos K; Ninios P; Bunn D W

In Janssen J and Skiades C H eds., Applied stochastic models and data analysis, World Scientific Publishing, 1993

OO/DEVS: a smalltalk implementation of the DEVS formalism

Ninios P; Vlahos K; Bunn D W

In Proceedings of the 1993 European Simulation Multiconference, Lyon, 1993

Using group seasonal indices in multi-item, short-term forecasting

Bunn D W; Vassilopoulos A

International Journal of Forecasting 1993 Vol 9:4 p 517-526

1992

Judgmental inputs to statistical forecasting models

Bunn D W

In Wright G and Bolger F eds., Expertise in decision support, Plenum, 1992

Modeling the effects of regulatory scenarios on investment behaviour in the British electricity market

Bunn D W; Larsen E R

In Proceedings of the 23rd Annual Pittsburgh Conference on Modeling and Simulation, 1992

Model-referenced procedure to support adversarial decision processes: application to electricity planning

Bunn D W; Vlahos K

Energy Economics 1992 October Vol 14:4 p 242-247

Sensitivity of the reserve margin to factors influencing investment behaviour in the electricity market of England and Wales

Bunn D W; Larsen E R

Energy Policy 1992 May Vol 20:5 p 420-429

Specification of the predictive distribution for a combination of forecasts

Bunn D W; Menezes L

In Buhler D W et al. eds., Proceedings of the Operations Research Conference 1990, Springer Verlag, 1992

1991

1989

1988

Combining forecasts (invited review)

Bunn D W

European Journal of Operational Research 1988

1987

Expert use of forecasts: bootstrapping & linear models

Bunn D W

In G Wright ed., Judgemental Forecasting, J Wiley & Sons, 1987

Risk analysis, assessment & management

Bunn D W; Moskowitz H

European Journal of Operational Research 1987

1986

Development of a stochastic model for the economic dispatch of electric power

Bunn D W; Paschentis S

European Journal of Operational Research 1986

Forecasting with multiple predictors: pluralistic methods in decision-support

Bunn D W

In Proceedings IEE Colloquium on Load Forecasting, 1986

1985

1984

Applied decision analysis

Bunn D W

McGraw-Hill, New York, 1984

Efficiency of the independence assumption in the combination of forecasts

Bunn D W; Topping I

Operations Research Letters 1984

1983

1982

1981

1980

1979

1978

1977

1976

1975

2004

Modelling prices in competitive electricity markets

Bunn D W

Wiley, 2004

1999

Strategic price risk in wholesale power markets

Bunn D W

Risk Publications 1999

1997

1996

Teaching portfolio

Our teaching offering is updated annually. Faculty and programme material are subject to change.

Masters Degrees electives

Optional courses providing a deep dive into specialist areas.
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Energy: Markets, Models & Strategies

This course provides an introduction to an industrial sector of worldwide importance, and one in which there are now many business challenges through market restructuring and the development of low carbon technologies.
PROGRAMMES WITH THIS ELECTIVE

Executive MBA Dubai

Executive MBA London

EMBA-Global

Masters in Analytics and Management

MBA

Masters in Financial Analysis

Masters in Finance Full-time

Masters in Finance Part-time

Masters in Management

Time Series Analysis

This is a practical course developed to extend statistical capabilities and critical understanding in the analysis of time series data. The main emphasis will be upon analysing financial and commodity data, mostly high frequency. Although various advanced regression-based methods are reviewed, the course will not be mathematically demanding and students who were comfortable with the pre-programme, or first term, statistics course will be able to move on to this material without difficulty. Students should, however, have an interest in model-based analysis. The course material will be developed intuitively, rather than theoretically, through the exploration of many examples and practical workshops. The course will start with the fundamental basics of time series analysis and lead to a look at recent techniques for algorithmic forecasting and value-at-risk. Two of the later sessions will be led by Dr Peter Bolland, who was formerly head of electronic market making at Morgan Stanley.
PROGRAMMES WITH THIS ELECTIVE

Executive MBA Dubai

Executive MBA London

EMBA-Global

Masters in Analytics and Management

MBA

Masters in Financial Analysis

Masters in Finance Full-time

Masters in Finance Part-time

Masters in Management
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