Putin’s in ‘deep trouble’: Russia's economy to tank in 12 months
Sanctions are finally biting 'to a greater extent' and could harden if Trump stops being played
On this week’s edition of The Trump Report, Maddie Hale sat down with London Business School's Professor Richard Portes to cut through the noise on Russia’s war economy and the impact of Western sanctions. His verdict: the Kremlin is in far deeper trouble than it admits, and the crunch could come within the year.
Portes dismissed Moscow’s claims of “technical stagnation” as propaganda, arguing Russia faces falling growth, labour shortages, and ballooning deficits that can’t easily be papered over with bond sales. With young men sent to the front and consumers deprived of basic goods, he described it bluntly as a “wartime economy” built on denial.
Sanctions, he insisted, are biting harder now, and could tighten further if Donald Trump “realises he’s being played for a fool.” If oil revenues continue to shrink, particularly as Ukrainian drone strikes disable refineries, Russia may soon be forced into visible domestic sacrifices. Portes predicts “serious economic disruption” within 12 months, not 24.
China may offer Moscow some lifelines, but not enough to sustain the economy, while India’s discounted oil purchases show the gaps in Western unity. For Trump, the sanctions dilemma intertwines with his own trade war: courts have ruled his tariffs exceeded presidential authority, raising the prospect of refunds to US firms. Portes noted that tariffs functioned as hidden taxes on American households, and clawing them back could be seen as a rare reprieve for consumers.
As for how Trump himself would react to such a ruling, Portes deadpanned: “If I could answer that, I could answer a lot of questions you haven’t even put yet. Who knows? It’s totally unpredictable.”
To watch the full interview, click here