Regional paths, global stakes: looking ahead to COP30 in a fragmented world

COP30 in Belém arrives at a moment of profound uncertainty. For decades, the climate process has rested on the promise of multilateralism: that countries, however different, could align around ambition, shared rules, and finance.

That promise now feels under strain. With the United States stepping away for a second time, the question is whether others – China, the European Union, Brazil, and key G20 economies – will carry the system forward. What emerges may well be a new form of regionalism: progress driven less by universal frameworks and more by alliances of countries, sectoral clubs, and regional agreements moving at uneven speeds.

Within this shifting landscape, I will watch three issues with particular interest.

National climate plans

The first is the next generation of national climate plans, or NDCs, due this year. COP30 is the critical moment when countries are expected to table these commitments, which will define trajectories out to 2035. The significance of these commitments cannot be overstated: they will shape the pace of the transition, influence the demand for technologies and capital, and set the operating conditions for firms across sectors. Many governments missed the informal February deadline to submit their plans, which heightens the stakes in Belém.

Climate finance

The second is climate finance. At COP29 in Baku, governments agreed on a new collective goal that points to around $300 billion per year by 2035. The ambition is clear; the delivery is not. Who pays, how much comes from public budgets versus private capital, and what role multilateral banks will play, all remain undecided. The credibility of Belém will rest in part on whether governments can outline pathways that convert a headline figure into predictable flows for mitigation, adaptation, and loss-and-damage support. For investors and firms, these flows will provide potentially powerful signals about which regions and sectors will attract capital and which risks will be contained.

Energy transition

The third is the energy transition and the future of carbon markets. COP28 in Dubai created momentum by calling for a transition away from fossil fuels. In Belém, I expect to see whether governments translate that ambition into concrete NDC commitments – embedding fossil fuel phasedowns, scaling renewables, doubling efficiency, and accelerating methane abatement. Alongside this, rules for carbon markets are meant to be moving from negotiation to implementation. The integrity of these mechanisms – whether they rest on rigorous baselines, effective safeguards, and full transparency – will determine if markets become tools for genuine ambition or simply mechanisms of delay.

For business and finance, these issues are not peripheral. Policy clarity in NDCs reduces transition risk and shapes investment horizons. Credible finance pledges create investable projects, influence the cost of capital, and guide decisions about where to deploy resources. The strength of carbon market rules affects how firms design offset strategies, how investors value low-carbon assets, and how supply chains manage emissions. The signals emerging from Belém will flow directly into boardroom strategies and financial models.

Ultimately, COP30 is more than another climate summit. It is a moment that will reveal whether the international system still holds enough coherence to guide the transition in ways that markets, governments, and societies can trust.

Whatever the outcome in Belém, responsibility for progress does not rest with governments alone. The international process can set direction, but it cannot substitute for the choices and commitments made within firms every day. Business leaders must continue advancing sustainability even amid uncertainty and political headwinds.

To support these efforts, I have developed a Sustainability Playbook for ESG professionals, sustainability strategists, and corporate leaders who are working to sustain momentum and anchor sustainability at the core of strategy in an increasingly hostile climate. Here are some of my recommendations for leaders:

10 things you can do now

1. Use ESG as a lens for strategic foresight – not as a reputational cover. Sustainability should help you anticipate systemic disruption – not obscure it with language. Reframing ESG as “resilience” or “purpose” only matters if the underlying commitments deepen. This is not about what you call it. It’s about what it prepares you for.

2. Keep a long memory. The backlash is loud, but it’s not permanent. Climate change, inequality, regulatory volatility – these aren’t trends, they’re constraints. ESG is about staying relevant over decades, not quarters.

3. Build governance literacy at the top. If your board doesn’t understand sustainability as a strategic concern, you have a structural vulnerability. Move beyond slide decks – equip directors to ask better questions, interpret non-financial signals, and engage with trade-offs.

4. Strengthen your internal alliances. Sustainability cannot succeed as a silo. It needs legal to own compliance risk, finance to own capital reallocation, operations to own execution. Map your internal champions – and cultivate them.

5. Align incentives. Tie sustainability to decision-making power. If ESG shows up in reporting but not in performance reviews, capital approvals, or executive compensation, it’s not real. Integration starts with what gets rewarded.

6. Anchor sustainability in capital allocation. Nothing says strategic priority like funding. ESG priorities must inform where capital is deployed, which projects get greenlit, and how trade-offs are resolved at the portfolio level.

7. Make your trade-offs explicit. Be honest about what you can and cannot do. Acknowledge when progress comes at a cost. This builds internal credibility and avoids future accusations of overreach or greenwashing.

8. Pay attention to who is folding – and who is still holding the line. This moment is revealing. Watch carefully. Which companies are quietly backing away, and which are staying the course without fanfare? Who’s rebranding without substance – and who’s quietly doubling down? These patterns will shape the next phase of the field. Know where you stand, and with whom.

9. Stay grounded in the business. Sustainability should inform core strategy, not orbit it. Whether you're in healthcare, finance, manufacturing or tech – connect ESG to your value proposition, operating model, and sector-specific risks.

10. Say less, mean more. In a volatile environment, credibility matters more than visibility. Don’t announce what you haven’t built. Let action lead language – and let the results speak when the noise subsides.

Finally, steer clear of making easy assumptions when it comes to sustainability. These key questions will help you think through your current organizational situation and how to make progress:

• Who really holds the power to approve, delay, or veto sustainability decisions – and why?

• When ESG goals collide with short-term business pressures, how are trade-offs surfaced – and who decides how to resolve them?

• How directly does sustainability shape your company's core strategic choices?

• What would your operating model look like if ESG were genuinely internalised?

• At what point in our capital allocation process does ESG come in – and what weight does it carry?

• If our company went silent on ESG for a year, what would still be true?

• What part of our ESG agenda would we still stand by if the external pressure completely disappeared?

Download the full Sustainability Playbook here (pdf)

• Discover more about leading for sustainability with our six-week online course Sustainability Leadership and Corporate Responsibility