In conversation with NATO’s Deputy Secretary General

London Business School and the Wheeler Institute for Business and Development had the great honour of welcoming NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoană at the end of March.

During a stimulating and wide-ranging discussion with Professor Florin Vasvari, and hosted by Elias Papaioannou, Professor of Economics and Co-Academic Director of the Wheeler Institute, Mr Geoană provided insight into NATO's approach to addressing ongoing global security challenges.

He also emphasised the important lessons learnt from the Ukrainian conflict and cast light on global strategic shifts in the context of the war and beyond.

The conversation began by discussing the conflict in Ukraine and whether it was preventable. Mr. Geoană said NATO worked tirelessly right up until the final hours but was unable to persuade President Putin to not invade Ukraine, stating that this act of aggression was not driven by what the President claimed is the existential threat of a NATO expansion, but by expansionist tendencies that are reminiscent of Russia’s past. Contrary to what is purported by the Russian leader, NATO, he insists, does not have an aggressive stance against Russia and that the notion NATO’s growing list of members is the organisation attempting to “encircle” the country is baseless. He emphasised the defensive and political alliance is focused only on keeping peace and maintaining stability for the more than 1 billion people that reside in its member nations.

The Deputy Secretary General did not downplay the global implications that will come with the outcome of the conflict, however. The result of the conflict will determine if brute force can replace the rule of law. He emphasized the conflict serves as a litmus test for independence, sovereignty, and the UN Charter, with consequences that could shape the world for decades to come, making it all the more important for Ukraine to be supported in this.

While he believes Russia’s objectives in the Ukraine conflict have not changed strategically – to prevent Ukraine from joining the West and keeping it within its sphere of influence – Mr. Geoană explained that Russia severely miscalculated Ukraine’s capacity to resist as well as the West’s capacity to support. He remarked on the bravery and ingenuity of Ukrainian people, citing examples of a Ukrainian teenager using a commercial drone to relay information about Russian tank movements and a ballerina who swapped her dancing shoes for body armour to fight on the frontlines.

On the timeline for the conflict coming to a close, Mr. Geoană admitted that the chances for a peaceful resolution in the near future are slim but stressed the importance of staying the course and remaining resilient in supporting Ukraine. In the meantime – and in a form fitting for a business school – the Deputy Secretary General explained that Russia’s cost-benefit analysis for invading Ukraine continues to rapidly deteriorate.

The event, In Conversation with NATO’s Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoană, was held at London Business School’s Sammy Ofer Centre on March 31. A recording of the event can be heard by clicking here https://wheelerblog.london.edu/in-conversation-with-mircea-geoanadeputy-secretary-general-nato/

Photography c/o ©SusanneHakuba