Dean Sergei Guriev: Pressure is mounting on Russia despite battlefield stalemate

Professor Sergei Guriev, Dean of London Business School, has said Russia is facing mounting economic and political pressure despite the war in Ukraine remaining largely at a military stalemate.

Speaking to CNBC's Europe Early Edition, Professor Guriev argued that while Russia's economy is unlikely to collapse, the Kremlin is increasingly being forced to divert resources towards military spending, creating growing fiscal strain and public dissatisfaction.

He pointed to fuel shortages, pressure on public finances and rising costs as visible signs that the war is becoming harder for Russia to sustain politically. Professor Guriev also suggested that Ukraine's increasingly effective use of drone technology has significantly slowed Russia's advances on the battlefield, while attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have increased the costs of the conflict for Moscow.

Looking ahead, he said the prospects for peace depend largely on whether President Vladimir Putin accepts the true state of the conflict. "If Putin has the complete picture, it would be rational for him to negotiate and freeze the conflict," Professor Guriev said, adding that international support for Ukraine, particularly stronger air defences, could prove decisive in shaping Russia's calculations.

The interview may be viewed here