The UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2026: History, risk and return in turbulent times

Amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rapid technological change, investors are grappling with a complex and uncertain macroeconomic environment. The UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook brings a measured perspective to these challenges, with over a century of market evidence, drawing on global investment data since 1900, to distinguish enduring truths from short-term noise.

UBS and London Business School welcomed industry guests to the launch of the 2026 Global Investment Returns Yearbook, with Emeritus Professor of Finance at London Business School, Paul Marsh, presenting the report’s key findings.

Now in its 26th year, the Yearbook provides up to 126 years of data across 35 different markets and five composite indices, analysing the long-run performance of equities, bonds, bills, currencies and gold since 1900. Widely regarded as the definitive guide to historical investment returns, the publication places today’s market debates in a deep historical context.

Opening the session, Professor Marsh described the Yearbook’s purpose as using financial history to “shed light on today’s investment issues and help us better invest for the future,” invoking Shakespeare’s line “what is past is prologue” to underline the value of long-term perspective.

Developed by UBS Investment Bank and the Chief Investment Office of UBS Global Wealth Management, in collaboration with Professors Paul Marsh and Dr. Mike Staunton of London Business School and Emeritus Professor Elroy Dimson the Global Investment Returns Yearbook offers a rigorous foundation for understanding the long-term evolution of global financial markets.

Key themes from the 2026 edition include:

• Equities as the long-term return engine

  Across all countries with continuous records since 1900, equities have outperformed bonds, bills and inflation, confirming their role as the highest-returning liquid asset over the long run.

• Shifting global market leadership

  Global equity markets have been transformed over time, with the US rising to dominate world equity capitalisation, reflecting strong equity returns and sustained issuance, even as its share of global GDP has declined.

• Innovation, bubbles and long-run returns

  New technologies do not automatically imply poor outcomes. Historical evidence shows that sectors associated with past “bubbles” can still deliver strong multi-decade returns despite periods of severe volatility.

• Developed versus emerging markets

  Developed markets have delivered higher returns over the full 125-year horizon, while emerging markets have outperformed in more recent decades, highlighting the importance of time horizon and diversification.

• Inflation as a silent but powerful force

  Inflation has materially eroded purchasing power over time, reinforcing the need to focus on real, inflation-adjusted returns when comparing assets, countries and eras.

• Gold and hedging: nuanced roles

  Gold has preserved purchasing power over the very long run, but has been an inconsistent short-term inflation hedge, underlining the need for realistic expectations of defensive assets.

• Economic risk over geopolitical noise

  While geopolitical shocks matter, history shows that most major equity drawdowns were driven by economic forces, not geopolitics supporting a disciplined, long-term investment approach.

• Diversification still matters

  Despite higher market concentration and rising correlations, global diversification and balanced portfolios have continued to reduce risk and drawdowns over time.

Paul Marsh, Emeritus Professor of Finance at London Business School said: “In periods of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, it can be easy to lose perspective of the long-term investment horizon. The Yearbook, with its database stretching back 126 years, provides a rich source of information and experience to help readers screen out the short-term noise and learn from the past to better invest for the future.”

Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer, UBS Global Wealth Management, said: “The Global Investment Returns Yearbook reminds us that while markets and technologies evolve, the core principles of successful investing endure. History continues to show the importance of diversification, disciplined asset allocation and maintaining a long-term perspective.”

The session concluded with forward-looking return projections and a live Q&A, with questions focusing on geopolitical uncertainty, bond markets in the Middle East and the sustainability of US exceptionalism.

To purchase a copy of the UBS Global Investment Returns Year, please contact Dr. Mike Staunton at London Business School - mstaunton@london.edu