Putin’s Beijing visit highlights Russia’s growing dependence on China, says LBS Dean
Professor Sergei Guriev told CNBC that rising oil prices and closer ties with Beijing have given Russia economic breathing space despite sanctions pressure
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing this week underlines how deeply Russia now depends on China for trade, energy and economic stability, according to Professor Sergei Guriev, Dean of London Business School.
Speaking to CNBC, Guriev said the war-driven surge in oil prices had provided Russia with a significant short term economic reprieve after mounting fiscal pressures earlier this year.“Russian oil prices doubled because of this recent war in the Middle East,” he said. “That completely solved Russian fiscal problems.”
At the start of 2026, Russia’s economy had been slowing sharply under the weight of sanctions and wartime spending. Guriev noted that Moscow had previously discussed austerity measures and had already increased taxes in response to fiscal strain. However, higher energy revenues following renewed conflict in the Middle East had eased immediate pressure on the Kremlin.
The comments came as Putin arrived in Beijing for a two day summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, just days after US President Donald Trump concluded his own high profile visit to China. Guriev said the central issue for Moscow is the proposed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, which would significantly expand Russian gas exports to China after the collapse of European demand following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“Russia needs this pipeline because Russia has lost the European market for its gas,” he said. China, however, has so far resisted committing to the project, leveraging its diversified energy supplies and stronger negotiating position. Guriev suggested Beijing has the capacity to wait out current geopolitical tensions before finalising any major energy agreement.
“China has built substantial reserves of energy and can wait until the Middle Eastern conflict is over,” he said.The summit also reflects a broader geopolitical realignment since 2022. Guriev noted that Russia has rapidly shifted away from Europe towards China, with trade volumes between the two countries doubling over the past four years. “Russia used to have the EU as its major trade partner,” he said. “Now China is Russia’s biggest partner.”
Guriev also described the increasingly complex diplomatic balancing act facing Moscow as relations between Washington and Beijing show signs of stabilisation. “For Putin, this triangle is very important,” he said, referring to Russia, China and the United States. “He depends on China greatly. He also depends on President Trump not tightening sanctions.”
Analysts expect energy agreements, investment deals and industrial cooperation to dominate discussions during the Beijing summit, as both countries seek to strengthen economic ties amid continued global uncertainty.
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