Failing to forecast real events
Journal
Journal of Financial Economics
Subject
Finance
Publishing details
Authors / Editors
Dow J;Bond P
Biographies
Publication Year
2021
Abstract
Do more talented traders prefer to bet on and against rare events or common events? Bets on rare events include out of the money options. Bets against rare events include the carry trade and investment grade bonds. In a model where traders specialize, equilibrium pricing reflects trading ability: A market with more skilled traders has a larger bid ask spread. We show that lower skill traders bet on and against rare events, while higher skill traders bet on and against frequent events, leading to higher bid-ask spreads in common event assets, and reducing financial markets’ ability to predict rare events.
Available on ECCH
No
