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Policy uncertainty and cross-border capital flows

Subject

Finance

Publishing details

IFA Working Paper

Authors / Editors

Julio B;Yook Y

Publication Year

2010

Abstract

We document cycles in corporate investment corresponding with the timing of national elections around the world. During election years, firms reduce investment expenditures by an average of 4.8% relative to non-election years, controlling for growth opportunities and economic conditions. The magnitude of the investment cycles varies with different country and election characteristics. We investigate several potential explanations and find evidence supporting the hypothesis that political uncertainty leads firms to reduce investment expenditures until the electoral uncertainty is resolved. These findings suggest that political uncertainty is an important channel through which the political process affects real economic outcomes.

Keywords

Corporate Investment, Political Uncertainty

Series

IFA Working Paper

Available on ECCH

No


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