Skip to main content

Please enter a keyword and click the arrow to search the site

Keep it simple: dynamic bond portfolios under parameter uncertainty



Publishing details

Social Sciences Research Network

Authors / Editors

Feldhutter P;Larsen L S;Munk C;Trolle A B

Publication Year



We empirically investigate the importance of parameter uncertainty to bond investors. Using a Bayesian approach, we quantify the expected utility loss due to parameter uncertainty from following seemingly optimal dynamic portfolio strategies. Expected utility losses are increasing in the number of term structure factors and the complexity of the risk premium specification. Even with long data sets to estimate parameters, an investor with typical risk aversion is better off following a portfolio strategy implied by a misspecified but parsimonious model than a correctly-specified but difficult-to-estimate three-factor affine model with time-varying risk premia.


Suboptimal investments; Parameter uncertainty; Utility losses; Bond portfolios; MCMC estimation


Social Sciences Research Network

Available on ECCH


Select up to 4 programmes to compare

Select one more to compare
subscribe_image_desktop 5949B9BFE33243D782D1C7A17E3345D0

Sign up to receive our latest news and business thinking direct to your inbox


Sign up to receive our latest course information and business thinking

Leave your details above if you would like to receive emails containing the latest thought leadership, invitations to events and news about courses that could enhance your career. If you would prefer not to receive our emails, you can still access the case study by clicking the button below. You can opt-out of receiving our emails at any time by visiting: or by unsubscribing through the link provided in our emails. View our Privacy Policy for more information on your rights.