Disagreement about inflation and the yield curve
Journal
Journal of Financial Economics
Subject
Finance
Publishing details
Authors / Editors
Ehling P;Gallmeyer M;Heyerdahl-Larsen C;Illeditsch P
Publication Year
2018
Abstract
We show that inflation disagreement, not just expected inflation, has an impact on nominal interest rates. In contrast to expected inflation, which mainly affects the wedge between real and nominal yields, inflation disagreement affects nominal yields predominantly through its impact on the real side of the economy. We show theoretically and empirically that inflation disagreement raises real and nominal yields and their volatilities. Inflation disagreement is positively related to consumers’ cross-sectional consumption growth volatility and trading in fixed income securities. Calibrating our model to disagreement, inflation, and yields reproduces the economically significant impact of inflation disagreement on yield curves.
Keywords
Inflation disagreement; Real and nominal yields; Yield volatilities; Cross-sectional consumption growth volatility; Speculative trade
Available on ECCH
No