Be confident. Not cocksure

In February 2016, David Cameron announced that there would be a referendum in June on whether or not the UK should remain in the EU. He went on to declare that he would campaign for the Remain side. He appeared confident that he would win. He said at the time: “The Americans would probably say it’s a slam-dunk”.

Of course, he was wrong. There has been much analysis of why the British people voted to leave the EU. But why, and how, in February 2016, was David Cameron so confident that Remain would triumph? There are crucial lessons for all of us in the answer, and they boil down into two key points.

Confidence: the great deceiver

First, David Cameron, and his advisors spent most of their time in what has become known as the Westminster bubble, with people of a similar outlook, background and experience, all of whom frequent the Palace of Westminster and its environs. London, after all, voted strongly to remain in the EU.