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Formula predicts Team Great Britain medal haul

10 Jul 2012

A PhD candidate at London Business School has used an economic formula to predict that Team GB will win 62 medals at this year's Olympic Games, including 25 golds.

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The formula, followed by Emily Williams, takes into account four factors - population, GDP per capita, medal share from the previous Olympics and which country is hosting the Games.

Brazil, for instance, has a significantly larger population than the Netherlands, but the Netherlands' GDP per capita is greater. Both nations win around the same number of medals because these two factors cancel each other out.

When used previously the formula, devised by Andrew Bernard, professor of international economics at the Tuck School of Business in New Hampshire, has achieved a 95% accuracy rate.

As host nation, Britain's medal hopes have been bolstered by 15 and if the formula proves correct, it would be Team GB's highest medal haul since the Second World War - eclipsing the 47 medals won during the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing.