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Paolo Surico

Professor of Economics

BA (Bari), Master in Economics (Universitat Ponpeu Fabra), PhD (Bocconi)

Professor Paolo Surico received his PhD in 2004 from Bocconi University and worked as a Research Advisor of the External Members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, before joining the Economics Department at London Business School in 2009.

His recent work focuses on assessing the aggregate effects and distributional impact of large public programme interventions such as government spending and tax reforms, giving particular emphasis to the role played by household debt in the transmission mechanism.

He is a Research Affiliate at the Centre for Economic Policy Research (London) and an academic consultant at the Bank of England. Paolo’s main research interests are in macroeconomics, fiscal policy and monetary economics. His work has been recently published in leading international academic journals and he has worked as an external consultant for the European Central Bank.

He was awarded the Best MBA Teacher Prize, as voted for by students, in the biennium 2011-2012. He is the holder of the Leverhulme Prize 2012 for the best economist in the UK under the age of 35 and he is a recipient of the British Academic mid-career fellowship in 2014.


Policy uncertainty and aggregate fluctuations

Surico P; Mumtaz H

Journal of Applied Econometrics 2018 Apr/May Vol 33:3 p 319-331

The consumption response to positive and negative income shocks

Bunn P; Le Roux J; Reinold K; Surico P

Journal of Monetary Economics 2018 June Vol 96 p 1-15


Household debt and the dynamic effects of income tax changes

Cloyne J; Surico P

Review of Economic Studies 2017 Vol 84:1 p 45-81


International fiscal spillovers

Faccini R; Mumtaz H; Surico P

Journal of International Economics 2016 Vol 99 p 31-45


Price-level uncertainty and stability in the United Kingdom

Surico P; Cogley T; Sargent T

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 2015 Vol 52 p 1-16

Transmission mechanism in good and bad times

Mumtaz H; Surico P

International Economic Review 2015 Vol 56:4 p 1237-1260

Unemployment and productivity in the long-run: The role of macroeconomic volatility,

Benigno P; Ricci L; Surico P

Review of Economics and Statistics 2015 Vol 97:3 p 698-709


Consumption, income changes, and heterogeneity: evidence from two fiscal stimulus programs

Misra K; Surico P

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2014 Vol 6:4 p 84-106

The incidence of transaction taxes: Evidence from a stamp duty holiday

Besley T; Meads N; Surico P

Journal of Public Economics 2014 November Vol 119 p 61-70


Bank lending and monetary transmission in the euro area

De Santis R; Surico P

Economic Policy 2013 Vol 28:75 p 423-457


A century of inflation forecasts

D'Agostino A; Surico P

Review of Economics and Statistics 2012 Vol 94:4 p 1097-1106

Evolving international inflation dynamics: World and country-specific factors

Mumtaz H; Surico P

Journal of European Economic Association 2012 Vol 10:4 p 716-734

Risk heterogeneity and credit supply: Evidence from the mortgage market

Besley T; Meads N; Surico P

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2012 Vol 27 p 375-419


International comovements, business cycle and inflation: A historical perspective

Surico P; Mumtaz H; Simonelli S

Review of Economic Dynamics 2011 Vol 14:1 p 176-198

Two illustrations of the quantity theory of money breakdowns and revivals

Surico P; Sargent T

American Economic Review 2011 Vol 101:1 p 113-132


Monetary policy, inflation expectations and the price puzzle

Surico P; Castelnuovo E

Economic Journal 2010 Vol 120:549 p 1262-1283

The Lucas critique and the stability of empirical models

Surico P; Lubik T

Journal of Applied Econometrics 2010 Vol 25:1 p 177-194


Does global liquidity help to forecast U.S. inflation?

D'Agostino A; Surico P

Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 2009 Vol 41:2/3 p 479-489

The great moderation of the term structure of UK interest rates

Bianchi F; Mumtaz H; Surico P

Journal of Monetary Economics 2009 Vol 56:6 p 856-871

The transmission of international shocks; A factor-augmented VAR Approach

Mumtaz H; Surico P

Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 2009 Vol 41:s1 p 71-100 Supplement

Time-varying yield curve dynamics and monetary policy

Mumtaz H; Surico P

Journal of Applied Econometrics 2009 Vol 24:6 p 895-913

VAR analysis and the great moderation

Benati L; Surico P

American Economic Review 2009 Vol 99:4 p 1636-1652


Evolving U.S. monetary policy and the decline of inflation predictability

Surico P; Benati L

Journal of European Economic Association 2008:6 p 634-646

Insiders vs. outsiders in monetary policy making

Surico P; Besley T; Meads N

American Economic Review 2008:98 p 218-223

Measuring the time inconsistency of U.S. monetary policy

Surico P

Economica 2008 Vol 75:297 p 22-38

The cross channel of monetary policy and interdeterminacy

Surico P

Macroeconomic Dynamics 2008:12 p 724-735


The fed's monetary policy rule and U.S. inflation: the case of asymmetric preferences

Surico P

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 2007:31 p 305-324

The monetary policy of the ECB

Surico P

Scandinavian Journal of Management 2007:109 p 115-135


Model uncertainty, optimal monetary poliy and the preferences of the fed

Surico P; Castelnuovo E

Scottish Journal of Political Economy 2004:51 p 105-126


Asymmetric reaction functions for the Euro area

Surico P

Oxford Review of Economic Policy 2003:19 p 44-57

Geographical concentration and increasing returns

Surico P

Journal of Economic Surveys 2003:17 p 693-708

The agglomeration dilemma: Should i stay or should i go?

Surico P

Growth and Change 2003:34 p 261-275

What does monetary policy reveal about central bank's preferences?

Surico P; Castelnuovo E

Economic Notes 2003:32 p 335-359


Regional transfer multipliers

Corbi R; Papaioannou E; Surico P

CEPR Discussion Paper


Policy uncertainty and aggregate fluctuations

Mumtaz H; Surico P

Working Paper

Regional transfers

Corbi R; Papaioannou E; Surico P

NBER Working Paper


Consumer spending and fiscal consolidation: evidence from a housing tax experiment

Surico P; Trezzi R

Social Sciences Research Network

Monetary policy when households have debt : new evidence on the transmission mechanism

Cloyne J; Ferreira C; Surico P

Bank of England Working Papers

Research Awards

  • Sep 14-Aug 15: British Academy Mid-career Fellowship.

  • Dec 14: Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Economiques, Science Po Keynote Speaker, workshop on “Empirical Monetary Economics”.

  • Sep 13: Centre for International Macroeconomics and Finance, University of Cambridge Keynote Speaker, conference on “Modern Macroeconomic Policy making”.

  • Apr 12: Euro Area Business Cycle Network and Bank of England Keynote Speaker, conference on “Money is Back”.

  • Nov 11: The Leverhulme Trust, Philip Leverhulme Prize 2011, as outstanding young research scholar under the age of 36 based in the U.K. who has made original and significant contributions in the field of  Economics.

  • Jul 11: London Business School Student Association MBA Best Teacher Award 2011, determined by student vote.

  • Jun 11: Kiel Institute for the World Economy Excellence Award in Global Economic Affairs 2011, Porsche Scholarship, as best economist under the age of 35 in the research area of global economic affairs.

  • Nov 10-Oct 14: European Research Council Starting Independennt Research (Grant 263429).

  • Nov 10: London Business School Student Association MBA First Year Teaching Award 2010 as most appreciated professor by first year students for outstanding efforts teaching.

  • Sep 08: CEPR/ESI, Best Central Bank Research Prize 2008 for the paper ‘Household External Finance and Consumption’, with Tim Besley and Neil Meads.

  • Sep 06: CEPR/ESI, Best Central Bank Research Nomination 2006 for the paper ‘Evolving International Inflation Dynamics: World and Country-Specific Factors’, with Haroon Mumtaz.

  • Apr 02: Scottish Economic Society, Glasgow Cairncross Prize, with Efrem Castelnuovo.

  • Sep 01-Aug 04: Bocconi University, Milan, Fellow of the PhD in Economics.

Research Interest

  • Macroeconomics
  • Monetary policy
  • Fiscal policy and applied econometrics
  • Heterogeneous behaviour
  • Great moderation
  • International co-movements (nominal and real)
  • Macrofinance model of the term structure of interest rates
  • Forecasting
  • Consumption and access to mortgage finance
  • Money neutrality
  • Bank lending channel