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Derek Bunn

Professor of Decision Sciences, Management Science and Operations


MA (Cambridge), MSc and PhD (London)

Professor Derek W. Bunn is the author of over 200 research papers and ten books in the areas of forecasting, decision analysis and energy economics. As Professor of Decision Sciences at London Business School, he has been the recipient of several professional and industry awards, including the Goodeve Medal, from the UK Operational Research Society. His work has been extensively cited, and translated into more than six languages.

Professor Bunn read Natural Sciences at Trinity College, Cambridge University; received a PhD from London Business School; and was subsequently elected CEGB Fellow in Engineering at Oxford University. He has also been a visiting professor at Stanford University in California.

He was an elected council member of The Institute of Management Sciences (1992-1994), representing international interests in the merger executive with ORSA to create INFORMS.

More recently he has served as council member of the British Institute of Energy Economists. He has been editor of the Journal of Forecasting since 1984, and was formerly editor of Energy Economics. He is also the founding editor of the Journal of Energy Markets and has served on the editorial boards of eleven other journals, including Management Science.

He has acted as a special advisor to the House of Commons Select Committee on Energy and Climate Change, consultant to the UK Competition Commission on Electricity Market Abuse, Expert Advisor to the National Audit Office (in their review of the electricity industry reforms), peer reviewer on modelling work for DECC and Ofgem, and Expert Witness in several litigation cases before the High Court and at international Tribunals. He has been a regular keynote speaker and chair at many international research and practitioner conferences.

2015

Dynamic pricing of peak production

Bunn DW; Peura H

Operations Research 2015 Forthcoming

Measuring the carbon delta in financial performance

Bunn DW; McInerny C

Chapter in Donovan, C. (ed) Renewable Energy Finance. Imperial College Press.

Analysis and Forecasting of Electricity Price Risks with Quantile Factor Models

Bunn D; Chen D; Westgaard S

The Energy Journal 2015

2014

The forecasting performance of a finite mixture regime-switching model for daily electricity prices

Bunn D; Chen D

Journal of Forecasting 2014 Vol 33:5 p 364-375

The forecasting accuracy of electricity price formation models

Nan F; Bordignon S; Bunn D; Lisi F

International Journal of Energy and Statistics 2014 Vol 2:1

Optionality and policymaking in re-transforming the british power market

Chronopoulos M; Siddiqui A; Bunn D

Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy 2014 Vol 3:2

2013

The forward premium in electricity futures

Bunn D; Chen D

Journal of Empirical Finance 2013 Vol 23 p 173-186

Valuation anomalies for interconnector transmission rights

McInerney C; Bunn D

Energy Policy 2013 Vol 55 p 565-578

Combining day-ahead forecasts for British electricity prices

Bordignon S; Bunn D W; Lisi F; Nan F

Energy Economics 2013 Vol 35 p 88-103

Investment risk and return under renewable decarbonisation of a power market

Munoz J; Bunn D

Climate Policy 2013 Vol 13:1 p 87-105

Determinants of the premium in forward contracts

Redl C; Bunn D

Journal of Regulatory Economics 2013 Vol 43:1 p 90-111

2012

Forecasting power prices using a hybrid fundamental-econometric model

Gonzalez V; Contreras J; Bunn D W

IEE Transactions on Power Systems 2012 Vol 27:1 p 363-372

Massachusetts General Hospital's Pre-Admission Testing Area (PATA)

McCarty K; Levi R; Bunn D

European Case Clearing House 2012

Price formation and market power in a low carbon electrcity system

Morrow I; Bunn D

International Conference on the European Energy Market 2011 p 839-843

Investment propensities under carbon policy uncertainty

Bunn D; Kettunen J; Blyth W

Energy Journal 2011 Vol 32:1 p 77-118

Energy markets

Bunn D; Clements M; Hendry D

Book Chapter: In M Clements, D Hendry, Oxford Forecasting Handbook, OUP, 2011

Co-evolution of policy, market and technical price risks in the EU ETS.

Bunn D W; Blyth W

Energy Policy 2011 Vol 39:8 p 4578-4593

2010

Forecasting prices and volatilities using a hybrid fundamental econometric model

Bunn D; Gonzalez V; Contreras J

Proceedings of the IEEE 2010 25-29 July p 1-7

Analysis of the nonlinear response of electricity prices to fundamental and strategic factors

Bunn D W; Chen D

IEE Transactions on Power Systems 2010 May Vol 25:2 p 595-606

Vertical integration and market power: A model based analysis of restructuring in the Korean electricity market

Bunn D; Ochoa P; Martoccia M; Kim H; Sahn N

Energy Policy 2010 July Vol 38:7 p 3710-3716

The efficiency of network transmission rights as derivatives on energy supply chains

Bunn D; Martoccia M

Journal of Derivatives 2010 Winter Vol 18:2 p 46-57

Structural analysis of electricity demand and supply interactions

Bunn D; Fezzi C

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 2010 Vol 72:6 p 827-856

Structural interactions of European carbon prices

Bunn D; Fezzi C

Journal of Energy Markets 2010 Vol 2:4 p 53-69

Fundamental and behavioural drivers of electricity price volatility

Bunn D W; Karakatsani N

Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics 2010 September Vol 14:4 p 1-42

Integration and shock transmissions across European electricity forward markets

Bunn D; Gianfreda A

Energy Economics 2010 Vol 32:2 p 278-291

Optimization of electricity retailer's contract fortfolio subject to risk preferences

Kettunen J; Salo A; Bunn D

IEE Transactions on Power Systems 2010 Vol 25:1 p 117-128

2009

Policy interactions, risk and price formation in carbon markets

Bunn D; Blyth W; Kettunen J; Wilson T

Energy Policy 2009 Vol 37:12 p 5192-5207

Market power in transmission auctions

Bunn D; Zachmann G

Journal of Regulatory Economics 2009

Computational modelling of price formation in the electricity pool of England and Wales

Bunn D; Day C J

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 2009 February Vol 33:2 p 363-376

Dynamics in forward and spot electricity markets

Sanchez J J; Bunn D W; Centeno E; Barquin J

IEE Transactions on Power Systems 2009 Vol 24:2 p 582-591

Analyzing the temporal effects of ex ante mechanism designs in power markets

Bunn D; Mortoccia M

Proceedings of the IEEE 2009 26-30 July p 1-4

2008

Forecasting electricity prices: The impact of fundamentals and time-varying coefficients

Bunn D; Karakatsani N K

International Journal of Forecasting 2008 Oct-Dec Vol 24:4 p 764-785

Analysing the price-effects of vertical and horizontal market power with agent based simulation

Bunn d; Martoccia M

Proceedings of the IEEE 2008 20-24 July p 1-6

A vector error correction model of the interactions among gas, electricity and carbon prices

Bunn D; Fezzi C

Book Chapter: In F. Gulli (ed) Markets for carbon and power pricing in Europe, Edward Elgar, 2008

Cross-holdings, concentration and information in capacity-constrained sealed bid-offer auctions

Ruperez Micola A; Bunn D W

Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 2008 Vol 66:3-4 p 748-766

Intra-day and regime-switching dynmaics in electricity price formation

Bunn D; Nektaria V; Karakatsani V

Energy Economics 2008 Vol 30:4 p 1776-1797

Modelling the impact of market interventions on the strategic evolution of electricity markets

Bunn D W; Oliveira F

Operations Research 2008 Vol 56:5 p 1116-1130

Incentives and co-ordination in vertically related energy markets

Bunn D; Micola R

Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 2008 Vol 67:2 p 381-393

2007

Investment incentives in the Korean electricity market

Bunn D W; et al.

Energy Policy 2007 Vol 35:11 p 5819-5828

Incentives and co-ordination in vertically related energy markets

Bunn D W; Ruperez Micola A

Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 2007 Vol 67:2 p 381-393

Two markets and weak link

Bunn D W; Ruperez Micola A

Energy Economics 2007 Vol 29:1 p 79-93

2006

Agent-based analysis of technological diversification and specialisation in electricity markets

Bunn D W; Oliveira F

European Journal of Operational Research 2006 Vol 181:3 p 1265-1278

Institutional intent and strategic evolution in electricity markets

Bunn D W

In Miecelski M ed., Complex electricity markets, Polish institute of electricity, Lodz, 2006

2005

Development of a multifunctional sales response model with the diagnostic aid of artificial neural networks

Bunn D W; Pantelidaki S

Journal of Forecasting 2005 Vol 24:7 p 502-521

Electricity markets

Bunn D W

Energy Economics 2005 Special Issue

Large neural networks for electricity load forecasting: are they overfitted?

Bunn D W; Hippert H; Souza R

International Journal of Forecasting 2005 July-Sep Vol 21:3 p 425-434

Unilateral and collusive market power in the electricity pool of England and Wales

Bunn D; Martoccia M

Energy Economics 2005 Vol 27:2 p 305-315

Analysing the impact of electricity asset trading on the evolution of market structure

Bunn D W; Oliveira F

Proceedings of 3rd European Congress on Economics and Managememnt of Energy in Industry, Estoril, 2004

2003

Evaluating individual market power in electricity markets via agent-based simulation

Bunn D W; Oliveira F

Annals of Operations Research 2003 Vol 121 p 57-78

Valuation of electricity companies in evolutionary oligopolistic markets

Bunn D W

Proc agent 2002 conference on social agents: ecology, exchange and evolution, Argonne National Laboratory, University of Chicago, 2003

2001

Experimental analysis of the efficiency of uniform-price versus discriminatory auctions in the England and Wales electricity market

Bunn D W; Bower J

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 2001 Vol 25:3-4 p 561-592

Model based comparison of strategic consolidation in the German electricity industry

Bunn D W; Bower J; Wattendrup C

Energy Policy 2001 Vol 29:12 p 987-1005

Load forecasting via neural networks: an investigation on the overfitting problem

Bunn D W

Annals of the V CBRN (5th Brazilian Neural Network Conference) Rio de Janeiro, RJ p 445-449

Setting accuracy targets for short-term judgemental sales forecasting

Bunn D W; Taylor J W

International Journal of Forecasting 2001 Vol 17:2 p 159-169

Agent-based simulation: an application to the new electricity trading arrangements of England and Wales

Bunn D W; Oliveira F

IEEE Transactions on Evolutionary Computation 2001 Vol 5:5 p 493-503

Setting accuracy targets for short-term judgemental sales forecasting

Bunn D W; Taylor J

International Journal of Forecasting 2001 Vol 17:2 p 159-169

2000

Model-based comparisons of pool and bilateral markets for electricity

Bunn D W; Bower J

Energy Journal 2000 Vol 21:3 p 1-29

Editorial to the 21st anniversary issue

Bunn D W

Energy Economics 2000 Vol 22:1

Review of practical guidelines for combining forecasts

de Menezes L M; Bunn D W; Taylor J W

European Journal of Operational Research 2000 Vol 120:1 p 190-204

Forecasting loads and prices in competitive power markets

Bunn D W

Proceedings of the IEEE 2000 Vol 88:2 p 163-169

Understanding latent market power in the electricity pool of England and Wales

Bunn D W

In Eakin and Faruqui eds., Pricing energy for a competitive market, Kluwer, 2000

1999

Persistence of market power

Bunn D W; Day C J; Vlahos K

In Bunn D W ed., Strategic price risk in wholesale power markets, RISK, 1999

Reflections on the progress of electricity restructuring, privatisation and regulation in the UK during 1988-1998

Bunn D W

In Pfaffenberg W, Lychagin M and Melamid L eds., Electricity markets: problems of development, Russian Academy of Sciences, 1999

Quantile regression approach to generating prediction intervals

Bunn D W; Taylor J W

Management Science 1999 Vol 45:2 p 225-237

Deregulation in electricity: understanding strategic and regulatory risk

Bunn D W; Larsen E R

Journal of the Operational Research Society 1999 Vol 50:4

Comparison of seasonal estimation methods in multi-item, short-term forecasting

Bunn D W; Vassilopoulos A

International Journal of Forecasting 1999 Vol 15:4 p 431-444

Improving the accuracy of prediction intervals for combinations of forecasts: a simulation study

Bunn D W; Taylor J

International Journal of Forecasting 1999 Vol 15:3

Modelling prices in the electricity pool of England and Wales

Bunn D W

In Proceedings of the 12th Forecasting Symposium, Palo Alto, California 1999

Investigating improvements in the accuracy of prediction intervals for combinations of forecasts: a simulation study

Taylor J W; Bunn D W

International Journal of Forecasting 1999 Vol 15 p 325-339

Strategic price risk in wholesale power markets

Bunn D W

Risk Publications 1999

1998

Agent-based simulation of electric power pools

Bunn D W; Day C J

In Proceedings of the 19th IAEE North American Conference, 1998

Reflections on the progress of electricity restructuring, privatisation and regulation in the UK during 1988-1998

Bunn D W

In Proceedings of CIER XXXIII Top Executives Meeting: Trends in the Electricity Industry, Cartagena, 1998

Integrated modelling approach for understanding competitive electricity markets

Vlahos K; Ninios P; Bunn D W

Journal of the Operational Research Society 1998 Vol 49:3 p 187-199

Understanding strategic bidding behaviour in the electricity pool of England and Wales

Bunn D W

In Proceedings of the Fourth IAEE European Conference: Energy Markets: What's new?, 1998, p 391-396

Persistence of specification problems in the distribution of combined forecast errors

Bunn D W; Menezes L

International Journal of Forecasting 1998 Vol 14:3 p 415-426

1997

Complementary modelling approaches for analysing several effects of privatisation on electricity investment

Vlahos K; Bunn D W

In Bunn D W and Larsen E eds., Systems modelling for energy policy, Wiley, 1997

Rischi strategici e di regolamentazione

Bunn D W; Larsen E R

Energia 1997 Vol 18:2 p 42-51

Neural networks with error feedback terms for financial time series modelling

Burgess A N; Bunn D W; Refenes A N

In Proceedings SNN'97, Amsterdam, 1997

Modelling latent market power across gas and electricity markets

Bunn D W; Larsen E R; Dyner I

System Dynamics Review 1997 Vol 13:4

Backpropagation with discounted least squares and its application to financial time series modelling

Refenes A N; Bunn D W; et al

Neurocomputing 1997 Vol 14:2 p 123-138

Model-based policy analysis

Bunn D W; Vlahos K; Larsen E R; eds.

Energy Policy special issue 1997 Vol 25:3

Energy-environmental modelling

Bunn D W; Vlahos K; Larsen E R; eds.

Energy Economics special issue 1997 Vol 19:1

Systems simulation platform to support energy policy in Colombia

Bunn D W; Dyner I

In Bunn D W and Larsen E eds., Systems modelling for energy policy, Wiley, 1997

Systems modelling for energy policy

Bunn D W

Bunn D W and Larsen E eds., Wiley, 1997

1996

Energy forecasting

Bunn D W; Vlahos K; Larsen E R; eds.

Journal of Forecasting special issue 1996 Vol 15:6

Energy modelling

Bunn D W; Vlahos K; Larsen E R; eds.

International Transactions of Operational Research special issue 1996 Vol 3:3-4

Electricity restructuring and market-based pricing in the UK electricity industry during 1990-1995

Bunn D W

In The British privatization experiment, 5 years later: the winners and losers, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California, 1996

Analysis of market restructuring and rational energy use in Colombia using a systems simulation platform

Bunn D W; Dyner I

In Proceedings of the IAEE 19th International Energy Conference, Budapest, 1996

Non traditional methods of forecasting

Bunn D W

EURO XIII Glasgow 1994, European Journal of Operational Research, 1996

Re-evaluation of the UK electricity re-structuring and privatisation process during 1989-1996

Bunn D W

In Proceedings of the EULAFER Conference, Rio de Janeiro, 1996

Non-traditional methods of forecasting

Bunn D W

European Journal of Operational Research 1996 Vol 92:3 p 528-536

Plataforma de dinamica de sistemas para el apoyo al analisis de politicas en materia de uso racional de energia

Bunn D W; et al.

In Proceedings of the EULAFER Conference, Rio de Janeiro, 1996

Modelling strategic and regulatory risk (in Italian)

Bunn D W; Larsen E R

Rivista Energia 1996

Market-based pricing and demand-side participation in the electricity pool of England and Wales

Bunn D W

In Proceedings of the EPRI Conference on Innovative Approaches to Electricity Pricing, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California, 1996

Integrative modelling approach for understanding competitive electricity markets

Bunn D W; Ninios P; Vlahos K

In Proceedings of the EULAFER Conference, Rio de Janeiro, 1996

Integration and regulation in the energy sector: a Danish and European perspective

Larsen E R; Bunn D W; Haxholdt C

London Business School, 1996

Systems simulation to assess DSM policies for energy sustainability

Bunn D W; Dyner I

International Journal of Global Energy Issues 1996 Vol 9:3/4

Adjustment of forecasts with model consistent expectations

Bunn D W; Salo A

International Journal of Forecasting 1996 Vol 12:1 p 163-170

Review of the electricity pool of England and Wales from a demand-side perspective

Bunn D W

In MacKerron G and Pearson P eds., The UK energy experience: a model or warning, World Scientific Publishing, 1996

Systems simulation to support integrated energy analysis and liberalised planning

Bunn D W; Dyner I

International Transactions in Operational Research 1996 Vol 3:2 p 105-116

1995

Electricity restructuring and market-based pricing in the UK electricity industry during 1990-1995

Bunn D W

In Proceedings of the 11th International Seminar on Energy Planning, ACIEM, Bogota, 1995

Finance and investment technology

Bunn D W; Refenes A N

Global Investment Management 1995 Vol 4:2 p 20-31

Decision technology and intelligent decision support (editorial)

Bunn D W; Silverman B G

European Journal of Operational Research 1995 Vol 84:1 p 1-4

Decomposition in the assessment of judgemental probability forecasts

Bunn D W; Salo A

Technological Forecasting and Social Change 1995 Vol 49 p 13-25

Neural networks with error feedback terms for financial time series modelling

Burgess A N; Bunn D W; Refenes A N

In Proceedings of TIMS XXXIII, Singapore, 1995

Neural networks and quantitative finance

Refenes A N; Bunn D W

In Skeete H ed., Handbook of world stock and commodity exchanges, IFR Publishing, 1995

Neural networks and investment management

Bunn D W; Refenes A N

In Treleaven P and Goonatilake S eds., Intelligent systems for finance and business, Wiley, 1995

Progress in re-structuring, privatising and regulating the UK electricity industry during 1990-1995

Bunn D W

Pacific and Asian Journal of Energy 1995 Vol 5:2 p 223-234

OO/DEVS: a platform for industry simulation and strategic modelling

Ninios P; Vlahos K; Bunn D W

Decision Support Systems 1995 Vol 15 p 229-245

Industry simulation: system modelling with an object oriented/DEVS technology

Ninios P; Vlahos K; Bunn D W

European Journal of Operational Research 1995 Vol 81:3 p 521-534

Strategic opportunities across the new UK electricity and gas markets

Bunn D W; Dyner I; Larsen E R

In Proceedings of the 18th International Association for Energy Economists Conference, Washington DC, 1995

1994

Modelling the effects of privatization on capacity investment in the UK electricity industry

Bunn D W; Larsen E R; Vlahos K

Energetica 1994 Vol 10 p 41-68

Modelling electricity privatization in the UK

Bunn D W; Larsen E R

In Proceedings of the 1994 System Dynamics Conference, Stirling, July 1994

Finance and investment technology

Bunn D W; Refenes P

Global Investment Management 1994 Vol 4:2 p 30-31

Evaluating the effects of privatising electricity

Bunn D W

Journal of the Operational Research Society 1994 Vol 45:4 p 367-375

Balancing data and judgement in systems planning

Bunn D W

In Proceedings of the First Colombian Conference on Systems Modelling, Bucaramanga, 1994

1993

Modelling the effects of privatization on capacity investment in the UK electricity industry

Bunn D W; Larsen E R; Vlahos K

Journal of the Operational Research Society 1993 October Vol 44:10 p 957-971

Graphical model specification within the OO/DEVS framework

Ninios P; Bunn D W; et al

In Proceedings of the 1993 European Simulation Symposium, Delft, 1993

Complementary modelling approaches for analyzing several effects of privatisation on electricity investment

Bunn D W; Larsen E; Vlahos K

Journal of Operational Research Society 1993 Vol 44:10 p 957-971

Diagnostic tracking and model specification in combined forecasts of UK inflation

Bunn D W; Menezes L

Journal of Forecasting 1993 Vol 12:7 p 559-572

Forecasting with scenarios

Bunn D W; Salo A

European Journal of Operational Research 1993 Vol 68:13 p 291-303

Using group seasonal indices in multi-item, short-term forecasting

Bunn D W; Vassilopoulos A

International Journal of Forecasting 1993 Vol 9:4 p 517-526

OO/DEVS: a smalltalk implementation of the DEVS formalism

Ninios P; Vlahos K; Bunn D W

In Proceedings of the 1993 European Simulation Multiconference, Lyon, 1993

Modelling the UK electricity contract market under the object orientated/DEVS framework

Vlahos K; Ninios P; Bunn D W

In Janssen J and Skiades C H eds., Applied stochastic models and data analysis, World Scientific Publishing, 1993

Specification of the predictive distribution for a combination of forecasts

Bunn D W; Menezes L

In Buhler D W et al. eds., Proceedings of the Operations Research Conference 1990, Springer Verlag, 1992

Judgmental inputs to statistical forecasting models

Bunn D W

In Wright G and Bolger F eds., Expertise in decision support, Plenum, 1992

Modeling the effects of regulatory scenarios on investment behaviour in the British electricity market

Bunn D W; Larsen E R

In Proceedings of the 23rd Annual Pittsburgh Conference on Modeling and Simulation, 1992

Model-referenced procedure to support adversarial decision processes: application to electricity planning

Bunn D W; Vlahos K

Energy Economics 1992 October Vol 14:4 p 242-247

1991

Interaction of judgemental and statistical forecasting methods: issues and analysis

Bunn D W; Wright G

Management Science 1991 Vol 37:5 p 501-518

Adaptive forecasting with individual and product line seasonality

Bunn D W; Vassilopoulos A

In Proceedings of the 1991 International Association of Business Forecasting Conference, Atlanta, 1991

Strategic simulation of investment in electricity generation

Bunn D W; Larsen E R

In Proceedings of the 1991 European Simulation Multiconference, Copenhagen, 1991

1989

Uncertainty in relative cost investigation

Bunn D W,Vlahos K

Modern Power Systems 1989 June Vol 9:6 special supplement

Evaluation of the nuclear constraint in a privatised electricity supply industry

Bunn D W,Vlahos K

Journal of Fiscal Studies 1989 Vol 10:1 p 104-116

Combinations of forecasts: a model-building perspective

Bunn D W,Oliver R M

Operations Research Letters 1989 Vol 8:4

Forecasting with more than one model

Bunn D W

Journal of Forecasting 1989 Vol 8:3

Evaluation of the long-term effects on UK electricity prices following privatisation

Bunn D W,Vlahos K

Journal of Fiscal Studies 1989 November Vol 10:3 p 41-52

1988

Combining forecasts (invited review)

Bunn D W

European Journal of Operational Research 1988

1987

Risk analysis, assessment & management

Bunn D W; Moskowitz H

European Journal of Operational Research 1987

Expert use of forecasts: bootstrapping & linear models

Bunn D W

In G Wright ed., Judgemental Forecasting, J Wiley & Sons, 1987

1986

Forecasting with multiple predictors: pluralistic methods in decision-support

Bunn D W

In Proceedings IEE Colloquium on Load Forecasting, 1986

Development of a stochastic model for the economic dispatch of electric power

Bunn D W; Paschentis S

European Journal of Operational Research 1986

1985

Forecasting electric loads with multiple predictors

Bunn D W

Energy Journal 1985

Forecasting and decision analysis

Bunn D W; ed.

Special issue of the Journal of Forecasting, 1985

Statistical efficiency in the linear combination of forecasts

Bunn D W

International Journal of Forecasting 1985

Review of short-term forecasting methods in the electric power industry

Bunn D W; Farmer E D

In Comparative Models for Electric Load Forecasting, J Wiley & Sons, 1985

Economic and operational context of electric load prediction

Bunn D W; Farmer E D

In Comparative Models for Electric Load Forecasting, J Wiley & Sons, 1985

Comparative models for electric load forecasting

Dunn D W; Farmer E D; eds.

J Wiley & Sons, 1985

1984

Applied decision analysis

Bunn D W

McGraw-Hill, New York, 1984

Efficiency of the independence assumption in the combination of forecasts

Bunn D W; Topping I

Operations Research Letters 1984

1983

Television peaks in electricity demand

Bunn D W; Seigal J

Energy Economics 1983

Forecasting the effects of television programming on electricity loads

Bunn D W; Seigal J

Journal of the Operational Research Society 1983

Economic dispatch of electric power by stochastic linear programming

Bunn D W; Paschentis S N

In B Lev ed., Energy Models and Studies, Studies in Management Science, 1983

1982

Audience presence during breaks in television programming

Bunn D W

Journal of Advertising Research 1982

Analysis for optimal decisions

Bunn D W

John Wiley & Sons, 1982

Short-term load forecasting in the electricity supply industry

Bunn D W

Journal of the Operational Research Society 1982

Linear programming with uncertain parameters: An applications review

Bunn D W; Paschentis S

In Computers in Industry, 1982

Synthesis or selection of forecasting models: methods for small samples

Bunn D W; Kappos E

European Journal of Operational Research 1982

1981

Empirical Bayes formulation of the credit granting decision

Bunn D W

Operations Research Letters 1981

Model-switching criterion for a class of stochastic linear programmes

Bunn D W; Paschentis S N

Journal of Applied Mathematical Modelling 1981

Two methodologies for the linear combination of forecasts

Bunn D W

Journal of the Operational Research Society 1981

Development and implementation of an interactive on-line demand validation and prediction facility

Dunn D W; et al.

Report RD/L/2096R81 CEGB, Proceedings of the Power Systems Computational Conference, Lausanne, 1981

1980

Use of composite predictors in decision analysis

Bunn D W

European Journal of Operational Research 1980

Experimental study of a Bayesian method for daily electricity load forecasting

Bunn D W

Journal of Applied Mathematical Modelling 1980

1979

Synthesis of predictive models in marketing research

Bunn D W

Journal of Marketing Research 1979

Suboptimality of composite forecasts derived from posterior probabilities

Bunn D W

European Journal of Operational Research 1979

Composition of estimators for decision-making

Bunn D W

Technological Forecasting and Social Change 1979

Perspective on subjective probability for prediction and decision

Bunn D W

Technological Forecasting and Social Change 1979

Estimation of subjective probability distributions in forecasting and decision-making

Bunn D W

Technological Forecasting and Social Change 1979

1978

Forecasting political risk

Bunn D W; Mustafaoglu M

Management Science 1978

Screening methods in policy analysis

Bunn D W

Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 1978

Formal methods in policy formulation

Bunn D W; ed.

Birkhauser-Verlag, Basel, 1978

Decision analysis approach to repetitive competitive bidding

Bunn D W; Thomas H

European Journal of Marketing 1978

Synthesis of forecasting models in decision analysis

Bunn D W

Birkhauser-Verlag, Basel, 1978

Simplification of the matrix beta distribution for combining estimators

Bunn D W

Journal of the Operational Research Society 1978

1976

Assessing subjective probability in decision analysis

Bunn D W; Thomas H

In White D J; Bowen K eds., Theories of Decision in Practice, Hodder and Stoughton, 1976

Decision analysis approach to unique situation competitive bidding

Bunn D W; Thomas H

European Journal of Marketing 1976

Case studies in decision analysis

Bunn D W; Moore P G; et al.

Penguin, Harmondsworth, 1976

1975

Prior belief on the forecast variable

Bunn D W

Omega 1975

Bayesian approach to the linear synthesis of forecasts

Bunn D W

Operational Research Quarterly 1975

Anchoring bias in the assessment of subjective probability

Bunn D W

Operational Research Quarterly 1975

2007

Interaction of European carbon trading and energy prices

Bunn D W; Fezzi C

EMG Working Paper

2006

Incentives and coordination in vertically related energy markets

Rupérez Micola A; Banal-Estañol A; Bunn D W

EMG Working Paper

2005

Diurnal Reversals of Electricity Forward Premia

Karakatsani N V; Bunn D W

EMG Working Paper

Two markets and a weak link

Bunn D W; Rup´erez Micola A

EMG Working Paper

Resource Endowment and Electricity Sector Reform

Weinmann J; Bunn D W

EMG Working Paper

Current Teaching


Masters in Finance:

Z402 Data Analytics for Finance




Electives:

E334 Time Series Analysis

E348 Energy: Markets, Models & Strategies




PhD:

P002 Core - Statistical Research Methods I

Recent Awards from Research Funding Bodies:

 

2013: “Sustainable District Retrofitting” EU FP7

 

2012: “Electricity Auctions and Market Spikes” EU Marie Curie Actions

 

2011: “Optionality in UK Energy Policy” UK Energy Research Council

 

2010: “Modelling Electricity Market Decarbonisation” Electric Power Research Institute                (California)

 

2009: “Electricity and Carbon Market Risk” Norwegian Research Council

 

2008: “Incentives, Risk and Climate Change Policy” UK Economic and Social Research                Council


Research Interests

Business forecasting, decision technology, electricity and energy economics.