Durability of output and expected stock returns
Journal
Journal of Political Economy
Subject
Finance
Publishing details
Publication Year
2009
Abstract
The demand for durable goods is more cyclical than that for nondurable goods and services. Consequently, the cash flows and stock returns of durable-good producers are exposed to higher systematic risk. Using the benchmark input-output accounts of the National Income and Product Accounts, we construct portfolios of durable-good, nondurable-good, and service producers. In the cross section, an investment strategy that is long on the durable-good portfolio and short on the service portfolio earns a risk premium exceeding 4 percent annually. In the time series, an investment strategy that is long on the durable-good portfolio and short on the market portfolio earns a countercyclical risk premium. We explain these findings in a general equilibrium asset-pricing model with endogenous production.
Available on ECCH
No
