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Derek Bunn

Professor of Decision Sciences, Management Science and Operations

  • MA (Cambridge), MSc and PhD (London)

Professor Derek W. Bunn is the author of over 200 research papers and ten books in the areas of forecasting, decision analysis and energy economics. As Professor of Decision Sciences at London Business School, he has been the recipient of several professional and industry awards, including the Goodeve Medal, from the UK Operational Research Society. His work has been extensively cited, and translated into more than six languages.  

Professor Bunn read Natural Sciences at Trinity College, Cambridge University; received a PhD from London Business School; and was subsequently elected CEGB Fellow in Engineering at Oxford University. He has also been a visiting professor at Stanford University in California.  

He was an elected council member of The Institute of Management Sciences (1992-1994), representing international interests in the merger executive with ORSA to create INFORMS.  

More recently he has served as council member of the British Institute of Energy Economists. He has been editor of the Journal of Forecasting since 1984, and was formerly editor of Energy Economics. He is also the founding editor of the Journal of Energy Markets and has served on the editorial boards of eleven other journals, including Management Science.  

He has acted as a special advisor to the House of Commons Select Committee on Energy and Climate Change, consultant to the UK Competition Commission on Electricity Market Abuse, Expert Advisor to the National Audit Office (in their review of the electricity industry reforms), peer reviewer on modelling work for DECC and Ofgem, and Expert Witness in several litigation cases before the High Court and at international Tribunals. He has been a regular keynote speaker and chair at many international research and practitioner conferences.

The forecasting accuracy of electricity price formation models

Nan F; Bordignon S; Bunn D; Lisi F

International Journal of Energy and Statistics

Optionality and policymaking in re-transforming the british power market

Chronopoulos M; Siddiqui A; Bunn D

Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy

2013

The Forward Premium in Electricity Futures

Bunn D; Chen D

Journal of Empirical Finance

Combining day-ahead forecasts for British electricity prices

Bunn D; Bordignon S; Lisi F; Nan F

Energy Economics

Determinants of the Premium in Forward Contracts

Bunn D; Redl C

Journal of Regulatory Economics

2012

Forecasting power prices using a hybrid fundamental-econometric model

Bunn D W; Contreras J; Gonzalez V

IEE Transactions on Power Systems

Massachusetts General Hospital's Pre-Admission Testing Area (PATA)

McCarty K; Levi R; Bunn D

European Case Clearing House

Price formation and market power in a low carbon electrcity system

Morrow I; Bunn D

Intenaional Conference on the European Energy Market

Investment Propensities Under Carbon Policy Uncertainty

Bunn D; Kettunen J; Blyth W

Energy Journal

Energy Markets

Bunn D; Clements M; Hendry D

2010

Forecasting prices and volatilities using a hybrid fundamental econometric model

Bunn D; Gonzalez V; Contreras J

Proceedings of the IEEE

Structural analysis of electricity demand and supply interactions

Bunn D; Fezzi C

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics

Structural interactions of European carbon prices

Bunn D; Fezzi C

Journal of Energy Markets

Fundamental and Behavioural Drivers of Electricity Price Volatility

Bunn D W; Karakatsani N

Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics

Optimization of electricity retailer's contract fortfolio subject to risk preferences

Kettunen J; Salo A; Bunn D

IEE Transactions on Power Systems

2009

Market power in transmission auctions

Bunn D; Zachmann G

Journal of Regulatory Economics

Policy interactions, risk and price formation in carbon markets

Bunn D; Blyth W; Kettunen J; Wilson T

Energy Policy

Dynamics in forward and spot electricity markets

Bunn D; Sanchez J J; Centeno E; Barquin J

IEE Transactions on Power Systems

2008

Forecasting Electricity Prices: The Impact of Fundamentals and Time-varying Coefficients

Bunn D; Karakatsani N K

International Journal of Forecasting

Cross-holdings, concentration and information in capacity-constrained sealed bid-offer auctions

Ruperez Micola A; Bunn D W

Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization

Intra-day and regime-switching dynmaics in electricity price formation

Bunn D; Nektaria V; Karakatsani V

Energy Economics

Incentives and Co-ordination in Vertically Related Energy Markets

Bunn D; Micola R

Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization

Forecasting Electricity Prices: The Impact of Fundamentals and Time-varying Coefficients

Bunn D; Karakatsani N V

International Journal of Forecasting

2007

Incentives and co-ordination in vertically related energy markets

Bunn D W; Ruperez Micola A

Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization

Two markets and weak link

Bunn D W; Ruperez Micola A

Energy Economics

2006

Agent-based analysis of technological diversification and specialisation in electricity markets

Bunn D W; Oliveira F

European Journal of Operational Research

Electricity markets

Bunn D W

Energy Economics

Large neural networks for electricity load forecasting: are they overfitted?

Bunn D W; Hippert H; Souza R

International Journal of Forecasting

2003

Evaluating individual market power in electricity markets via agent-based simulation

Bunn D W; Oliveira F

Annals of Operations Research

Setting accuracy targets for short-term judgemental sales forecasting

Bunn D W; Taylor J W

International Journal of Forecasting

Agent-based simulation: an application to the new electricity trading arrangements of England and Wales

Bunn D W; Oliveira F

IEEE Transactions on Evolutionary Computation

Setting accuracy targets for short-term judgemental sales forecasting

Bunn D W; Taylor J

International Journal of Forecasting

Editorial to the 21st anniversary issue

Bunn D W

Energy Economics

Review of practical guidelines for combining forecasts

de Menezes L M; Bunn D W; Taylor J W

European Journal of Operational Research

1999

Quantile regression approach to generating prediction intervals

Bunn D W; Taylor J W

Management Science

Persistence of market power

Bunn D W; Day C J; Vlahos K

Deregulation in electricity: understanding strategic and regulatory risk

Bunn D W; Larsen E R

Journal of the Operational Research Society

Comparison of seasonal estimation methods in multi-item, short-term forecasting

Bunn D W; Vassilopoulos A

International Journal of Forecasting

Integrated modelling approach for understanding competitive electricity markets

Vlahos K; Ninios P; Bunn D W

Journal of the Operational Research Society

Persistence of specification problems in the distribution of combined forecast errors

Bunn D W; Menezes L

International Journal of Forecasting

Rischi strategici e di regolamentazione

Bunn D W; Larsen E R

Energia

Modelling latent market power across gas and electricity markets

Bunn D W; Larsen E R; Dyner I

System Dynamics Review

Model-based policy analysis

Bunn D W; Vlahos K; Larsen E R; eds.

Energy-environmental modelling

Bunn D W; Vlahos K; Larsen E R; eds.

Energy forecasting

Bunn D W; Vlahos K; Larsen E R; eds.

Energy modelling

Bunn D W; Vlahos K; Larsen E R; eds.

Non-traditional methods of forecasting

Bunn D W

European Journal of Operational Research

Modelling strategic and regulatory risk (in Italian)

Bunn D W; Larsen E R

Rivista Energia

Systems simulation to assess DSM policies for energy sustainability

Bunn D W; Dyner I

International Journal of Global Energy Issues

Adjustment of forecasts with model consistent expectations

Bunn D W; Salo A

International Journal of Forecasting

Systems simulation to support integrated energy analysis and liberalised planning

Bunn D W; Dyner I

International Transactions in Operational Research

Decomposition in the assessment of judgemental probability forecasts

Bunn D W; Salo A

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Decision technology and intelligent decision support (editorial)

Bunn D W; Silverman B G

European Journal of Operational Research

Finance and investment technology

Bunn D W; Refenes A N

Global Investment Management

OO/DEVS: a platform for industry simulation and strategic modelling

Ninios P; Vlahos K; Bunn D W

Decision Support Systems

Industry simulation: system modelling with an object oriented/DEVS technology

Ninios P; Vlahos K; Bunn D W

European Journal of Operational Research

Finance and investment technology

Bunn D W; Refenes P

Global Investment Management

Evaluating the effects of privatising electricity

Bunn D W

Journal of the Operational Research Society

1993

Modelling the effects of privatization on capacity investment in the UK electricity industry

Bunn D W; Larsen E R; Vlahos K

Journal of the Operational Research Society

Forecasting with scenarios

Bunn D W; Salo A

European Journal of Operational Research

Using group seasonal indices in multi-item, short-term forecasting

Bunn D W; Vassilopoulos A

International Journal of Forecasting

Uncertainty in relative cost investigation

Bunn D W,Vlahos K

Modern Power Systems

Combinations of forecasts: a model-building perspective

Bunn D W,Oliver R M

Operations Research Letters

Forecasting with more than one model

Bunn D W

Journal of Forecasting

1988

Combining forecasts (invited review)

Bunn D W

European Journal of Operational Research

1987

Risk analysis, assessment & management

Bunn D W; Moskowitz H

European Journal of Operational Research

Development of a stochastic model for the economic dispatch of electric power

Bunn D W; Paschentis S

European Journal of Operational Research

1985

Comparative models for electric load forecasting

Dunn D W; Farmer E D; eds.

Statistical efficiency in the linear combination of forecasts

Bunn D W

International Journal of Forecasting

1984

Efficiency of the independence assumption in the combination of forecasts

Bunn D W; Topping I

Operations Research Letters

1983

Television peaks in electricity demand

Bunn D W; Seigal J

Energy Economics

Forecasting the effects of television programming on electricity loads

Bunn D W; Seigal J

Journal of the Operational Research Society

1982

Audience presence during breaks in television programming

Bunn D W

Journal of Advertising Research

Short-term load forecasting in the electricity supply industry

Bunn D W

Journal of the Operational Research Society

Synthesis or selection of forecasting models: methods for small samples

Bunn D W; Kappos E

European Journal of Operational Research

1981

Two methodologies for the linear combination of forecasts

Bunn D W

Journal of the Operational Research Society

Model-switching criterion for a class of stochastic linear programmes

Bunn D W; Paschentis S N

Journal of Applied Mathematical Modelling

Experimental study of a Bayesian method for daily electricity load forecasting

Bunn D W

Journal of Applied Mathematical Modelling

Use of composite predictors in decision analysis

Bunn D W

European Journal of Operational Research

1979

Synthesis of predictive models in marketing research

Bunn D W

Journal of Marketing Research

Suboptimality of composite forecasts derived from posterior probabilities

Bunn D W

European Journal of Operational Research

Composition of estimators for decision-making

Bunn D W

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Perspective on subjective probability for prediction and decision

Bunn D W

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Simplification of the matrix beta distribution for combining estimators

Bunn D W

Journal of the Operational Research Society

Screening methods in policy analysis

Bunn D W

Socio-Economic Planning Sciences

Forecasting political risk

Bunn D W; Mustafaoglu M

Management Science

Decision analysis approach to repetitive competitive bidding

Bunn D W; Thomas H

European Journal of Marketing

Decision analysis approach to unique situation competitive bidding

Bunn D W; Thomas H

European Journal of Marketing

Case studies in decision analysis

Bunn D W; Moore P G; et al.

Bayesian approach to the linear synthesis of forecasts

Bunn D W

Operational Research Quarterly

Anchoring bias in the assessment of subjective probability

Bunn D W

Operational Research Quarterly

Current Teaching


Masters in Finance:

Z402 Data Analytics for Finance




Electives:

E334 Time Series Analysis

E348 Energy: Markets, Models & Strategies




PhD:

P002 Core - Statistical Research Methods I

Recent Awards from Research Funding Bodies:

 

2013: “Sustainable District Retrofitting” EU FP7

 

2012: “Electricity Auctions and Market Spikes” EU Marie Curie Actions

 

2011: “Optionality in UK Energy Policy” UK Energy Research Council

 

2010: “Modelling Electricity Market Decarbonisation” Electric Power Research Institute                (California)

 

2009: “Electricity and Carbon Market Risk” Norwegian research Council

 

2008: “Incentives, Risk and Climate Change Policy” UK Economic and Social Research                Council


Research Interests

Business forecasting, decision technology, electricity and energy economics.