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Nowcasting

Subject

Economics

Publishing details

Book Chapter: In Clements M P, Hendry D F eds., Oxford Handbook on Economic Forecasting, OUP, 2011

Authors / Editors

Reichlin L;Banbura M;Giannone D

Biographies

Lucrezia Reichlin

Publication Year

2011

Abstract

This article presents a statistical framework for estimating the current state of the economy (together with the recent past and near future) in a way in which the latest releases of high-frequency economic data can be incorporated, and in a way in which the impact of the latest release on the forecast can be readily assessed (providing a narrative to the changes in the estimate/forecast over time as more information accrues). It is organized as follows. Section 2 defines the problem of nowcasting in general and relates it to the concept of news in macroeconomic data releases. Section 3 explains the details of the approach. Section 4 discusses related literature. Section 5 illustrates the characteristics of the model via an application to the nowcast of GDP and inflation in the euro area. Section 6 discusses issues for further research, while Section 7 concludes.

Available on ECCH

No


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